The Bitcoin community, led by institutions, banks and cryptocurrency experts, believe that a bullrun is coming in 2024. But it can also be completely different.
On your own Erich’s YouTube channel Erik explains the four-year cycle from the perspective of November 28th. This date states as a turning point for changing cycles, which has 4 parts – bear market, intermediate phase, preparation for bull market and bull market.
We all know that crystal ball divination is almost impossible when determining the price of any cryptocurrency. However, if we focus on the theory of the four-year cycle, it remains intact for now. It cannot be said that it will remain this way forever, but it has worked for us so far. So if we can read anything from it, most of the market would be wrong in their 2024 price predictions. We can also recognize that if the majority of the market decides on a certain move, the opposite often happens.
The euphoria surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and the halving is an inflated bubble
There is no denying that the potential the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would inject considerable capital into the cryptocurrency market. Some banks or investment managers estimate that, as a result of the influx of such capital, increase the price of BTC up to three times. Which in the current scenario would mean a six-figure valuation.
Coupled with the Bitcoin halving, during which the supply of BTC will be cut in half, this would mean another adding fuel to the fire as far as the price rally is concerned.
Sounds like an explosive combination of factors. If there was no argument as to why the price of BTC should not rise to six figures in 2024, surely an investor would consider this upward movement as obvious. However, this argument that refutes this development exists.
The four-year cycle: a history
From a historical point of view, it can be read from the chart of the four-year cycle that Bitcoin has never behaved like this. The halving is not the trigger for the price rally immediately following it. It always takes some time and all the real price rises have been happening until a year after the halving took place. Let’s look at examples from history (dashed vertical line means halving, vertical colored continuous line means November 28).
Halving in 2015, bull run in 2016
Each of the colored blocks shown represents the length of one year and starts and ends on November 28th. On this graph we can observe that the bull run (indicated by the green block) did not come until 4 months after the halving.
Halving in 2019, bull run in 2020
On this chart from the last bull run, we can see the same pattern. After the Bitcoin halving, it took more than half a year to get into significant upward movements.
Four-year cycle: now
According to this chart, we are now at the beginning of the blue phase, which is referred to as preparation for a bull market. In April 2024, a halving awaits us, which will partially clear the market of impatient investors, as they will expect a big price rally. But it is very likely that this will not happen.
The four-year cycle tells us that real the bull market will not start until November 28, 2024 and will end on November 28, 2025.
So is it possible that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF along with the halving would break the four-year cycle this year? It is possible, however, this is not as likely as the market sentiment suggests. A large part of investors is after a six-digit valuation of BTC by the end of 2024 convinced. But within a four-year cycle, this would mean breaking the blue band, which is bounded around $80,000.
It is very possible that as a result of the influx of huge capital, the price will rise to these limits. But I don’t know if these movements can be called bullish. When the main price movement is yet to come.
What is your opinion on the four-year cycle? And do you think the approval of the Bitcoin ETF along with the halving will be able to break the $80,000 mark in 2024? Share your opinion with us in the comments. 🙂
2023-12-03 13:00:00
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