Putin’s Syrian Gambit: Can Russia Afford to Lose Another Ally?
Russia, long seen as a master strategist in its own neighborhood, may be reaching a tipping point. After years of expanding its influence in Syria, Moscow now faces a major setback as Turkish-backed rebels make surprising gains, threatening Russia’s foothold in the region.
This destabilizing situation adds to the Kremlin’s growing list of international complications. While Russia has sought to project strength by intervening in conflicts from Syria to Ukraine, its resources are increasingly stretched thin.
The recent rebel push in Syria, which saw the retake of Aleppo, has dealt a significant blow to both Assad’s regime and Russia’s standing in the Middle East. A video circulating on social media, purportedly filmed inside a Russian advisory office at Aleppo’s military academy, starkly illustrates the extent of Russia’s predicament.
" "circulating on social media recorded in a Russian advisory office at Aleppo’s military academy after the rebels took it."
Adding to Moscow’s woes are the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon, which are straining its already limited resources. The diversion of crucial military equipment, like Su-25 fighter jets and S-300 missile systems, from Syria to Ukraine highlights the difficult choices facing the Kremlin.
Russia’s military advance in eastern Ukraine, while continuous, has amounted to little more than capturing minor villages. These limited gains signal Moscow’s inability to achieve any significant breakthroughs, let alone a decisive victory. This hesitancy to commit more resources to Ukraine could prove costly in Syria, where Russia risks losing its strategic gateway to the Middle East.
As Moscow grapples with the Syrian crisis, it faces a growing dilemma: Prioritize its interests in Syria or dedicate more resources to the conflict in Ukraine.
Some analysts speculate that the Kremlin may seek a ceasefire or peace negotiations in Ukraine to free up its hands in Syria. However, such a move would likely face significant resistance from Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Russia’s political allies in Georgia are also feeling the pressure. Ongoing protests against the ruling Georgian Dream government raise questions about Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence in the region.
With challenges mounting on multiple fronts, Russia finds itself at a crossroads. Its ability to navigate these complex geopolitical dynamics will have far-reaching implications, not just for the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but also for the global balance of power.
The unfolding situation begs the question: Can Russia afford to lose another ally?
