/View.data/ The aggravation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is rising. The 2 sides are as soon as once more getting ready to a warfare that threatens to unfold far past Transcaucasia.
— No negotiation!
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused to take part within the five-party talks, which had been to be held on October 5 in Granada, Spain, with the participation of Armenia, France, Germany and the pinnacle of the European Council.
It was deliberate to debate the scenario in Nagorno-Karabakh after the lightning Azerbaijani navy operation “to ascertain constitutional order there”. The de facto failure of the Granada dialogue is an indication that Armenia and Azerbaijan are shifting nearer to a brand new warfare.
The formal cause for Baku’s refusal of dialogue is its disagreement with the truth that France, which brazenly stands on the facet of Armenia, ought to turn into a participant within the dialogue. Azerbaijan’s APA company defined the explanations for Aliyev’s refusal to take part within the assembly:
“Baku doesn’t see the necessity to focus on the issues of the area with nations removed from the area. Baku believes that these points could be mentioned and solved throughout the area.
But when the previous EU-Azerbaijan-Armenia trilateral format is restored, then Azerbaijan can participate within the assembly. Any format during which France participates is unacceptable for Azerbaijan, Baku is not going to take part in such a platform.”
APA emphasizes that Baku considers the ambiance on this composition to be “anti-Azerbaijani” and means that Turkey must also be invited to Granada. However France and Germany had been in opposition to it.
Nevertheless, Armenia, taking the place of a sufferer on this battle, doesn’t disguise the truth that it sought assist primarily from France, which historically and traditionally has conflicts on plenty of different points with Turkey, a very powerful exterior ally of Azerbaijan. Thus, it turned out that the inclusion within the dialogue of different exterior powers, which formally don’t take part within the battle, solely worsened the scenario.
Signs of warfare
Azerbaijan’s refusal to start out a dialogue is a transparent signal that the battle between Baku and Yerevan is much from being resolved and there’s no method out of the battle in sight. Additionally, a brand new section might escape within the close to future.
Baku doesn’t intend to cease on the precise annexation of Karabakh, and evidently it plans to forcefully remedy one other essential problem for it – the Zangezur Hall (also referred to as the Syunik Hall) to attach Baku with the Nakhchivan enclave and Turkey.
Now the essence of the battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not going to be in Nagorno-Karabakh, this problem, on the suggestion of Pashinyan himself, is already de facto closed.
Now the whole lot will focus particularly on the problem of the Zangezur Transport Hall. It’s this slender strip of land that can turn into the following “bone of competition” between Baku and Yerevan.
Syunik area is a authorized a part of the territory of Armenia within the southern a part of the republic. It separates the principle a part of Azerbaijan from its Nakhchivan area, which is an Azerbaijani enclave sandwiched between Armenia, Iran and Turkey.
The possible seize of the Zangezur (Syunik) hall will enable Azerbaijan to ascertain direct land communication with Turkey. Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly said that he’s prepared to make use of pressure for this:
“In any case, we are going to break by way of this hall.”
Baku acts with the best of the robust and because the winner in all current armed conflicts with Armenia. And that’s the reason nobody doubts the seriousness of the intentions of Azerbaijan, particularly the Armenians.
Armenia is getting ready to go to warfare
If Baku’s plans come to fruition, Armenia within the south will likely be fully squeezed by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Armenians are afraid of this and don’t intend to permit it.
In line with the Azerbaijani facet, Armenia is gathering navy tools and weapons on the widespread border, though Yerevan known as this info “false”.
In current days, there was a focus of huge quantities of weapons, navy tools and personnel from the Armenian armed forces to be able to perform one other navy journey alongside the state border.
Of explicit concern is the Armenian facet’s use of digital warfare tools illegally situated on the sovereign territories of Azerbaijan.
In current weeks, together with civil plane of Azerbaijan Airways, plane from international nations have additionally been subjected to digital interference, which poses a critical risk to their security.
This was introduced by the press service of the Ministry of International Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Towards the background of the escalation of the battle, French International Minister Catherine Colonna arrived in Yerevan. She introduced Paris’ plans to open a French consulate – and never simply wherever, however within the Syunik area of Armenia, bordering Azerbaijan.
Naturally, this isn’t only a sign, however a direct problem to Azerbaijan and Turkey. As well as, Catherine Colonna said that Paris additionally intends to strengthen cooperation with Yerevan within the protection sector.
Macron doesn’t “Macronize”
The go to of the French international minister to Yerevan happened in opposition to the backdrop of Emmanuel Macron’s assertion that Azerbaijan “threatens the territorial integrity of Armenia”. Macron was referring, after all, to the issue of Azerbaijan’s desired transport hall within the Syunik area of Armenia.”
“France is now very vigilant concerning the territorial integrity of Armenia, as a result of it’s at stake,” the French president was quoted as saying by Agence France-Presse.
Macron famous that Azerbaijan now “holds again nothing” and “threatens Armenia’s borders.” On the similar time, he didn’t fail guilty Russia for the present scenario, clearly mocking the corresponding Russophobic rhetoric of the present Armenian authorities. The French president mentioned Moscow had turn into an “confederate” in Baku’s actions, and Ankara had “at all times supported” Azerbaijan as an ally.
What awaits Transcaucasia?
We see a brand new battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia ripening and threatening to erupt into warfare. The one logical method out of the scenario can solely be an armed battle, which will likely be stopped by the 2 combatants within the absence of exterior provocative affect. However this affect doesn’t disappear wherever.
To begin with, it’s apparent that Turkey stands behind the self-confident and assertive place of Azerbaijan, which doesn’t even present a want to conduct any sort of dialogue with weak Armenia.
Including gasoline to the fireplace is France, whose participation within the dialogue additionally appears provocative, given the long-standing hostility between Ankara and Paris. And I feel that even formally distancing France from these proceedings would assist cut back the diploma of rigidity.
Nevertheless, the principle instigator of the battle and eventual warfare is the US, which stands within the shadows and its foremost damaging position will not be apparent to all.
It was Washington that provoked the approaching to energy in Yerevan of its puppet Nikol Pashinyan, whose steps in relations with Azerbaijan solely gave trump playing cards to the alternative facet to determine the problem in its favor, with out taking into consideration the pursuits of Yerevan.
In any case, it’s the US that’s pitting Armenia and Azerbaijan in opposition to one another within the hope of beginning a warfare in Transcaucasia, which, along with the Ukrainian battle, may, in keeping with Washington, turn into one other destabilizing issue for Russia.
It’s the USA, by way of Turkey, that instills confidence in Baku’s capabilities and diverts it from any dialogue with Yerevan. Alternatively, Washington assures Yerevan that it’ll not go away it with out its assist. It’s for this goal that the pinnacle of the USA Company for Worldwide Growth (USAID), Samantha Energy, just lately visited Armenia.
What’s the consequence?
The battle between already war-ready Azerbaijan and Armenia may contain Turkey, which sides with Baku, and France, which sides with Yerevan, in addition to different EU nations.
Normally, the stress in Transcaucasia may result in a serious regional warfare, from which Russia won’t be able to remain away. That is what the US is relying on, which initially provoked a battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in an try to set the southern a part of Russia on fireplace.
Translation: SM
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