The Black Sea Conflict: Implications for NATO, Montreux Convention, and Increased Naval Presence

“The Black Sea is about to become a zone of conflict, in which Bulgaria and Romania – two NATO countries – may be involved. How would you comment on such a development? Do you expect a revision of the Montreux Convention and how do you intend to implement an increased NATO naval presence in the Black Sea in the event of an expansion of the conflict, what indications are there? What is your strategy for the Black Sea? Do we have reason to fear a full-scale war in the Black Sea region?” The MEP from the group of socialists and democrats Elena Yoncheva addressed these questions to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. It was heard in a joint meeting of the Committee on Foreign Policy and the Subcommittee on Security and Defense of the European Parliament (EP).

European citizens are concerned about the increasing escalation of the war in Ukraine – despite the huge aid that Europe and the US have provided to Ukraine. Military actions are already threatening to go beyond its borders, commented Elena Yoncheva. If we want to avoid full-scale war, negotiations will be necessary. Isn’t the time for that, given the realities of the battlefield, she added. Is NATO considering an option to seek a compromise that would be acceptable to both belligerents and that would end the war.

She reminded that a few weeks ago, in an interview with Le Figaro, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy stated that “Ukraine should not join either NATO or the European Union. Not only because it does not meet the criteria for accession, but also because it must remain neutral.” According to him, an end to the war in Ukraine can be achieved through discussion and diplomacy. He also commented on the calls to support Ukraine to the end. “For the return of Donbas is it about? Taking over Crimea? Or going all the way to Moscow? The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a clear violation of international law. But in terms of this territory, which was Russian in 1954 and where the majority of the population has always has felt Russian, I think any going back is illusory. Although I think it will take an uncontested referendum ie organized under the strict scrutiny of the international community to confirm the current state of affairs.”

The Black Sea is of great importance to NATO, Jens Stoltenberg said in response. He linked the Alliance’s behavior in the region to the termination of a grain deal brokered by Turkey, from which Russia later withdrew. We welcome Turkey’s efforts to restore a deal, the Secretary General added. The best way to ensure the transportation of grain from Ukraine is to stop the war. At the same time, he announced that NATO has increased its presence in the region. It has been like this for some time, but since the beginning of the war there have been more sea patrols in the Black Sea, with battle groups, in Bulgaria and Romania. The situation in the region is also closely monitored by the other Black Sea countries.

The Montreux Convention, signed in 1936, limits the presence of warships of non-Black Sea countries in the region – in terms of time, number and type of vessels. In wartime, Turkey has the right to close the straits and not allow warships into the Black Sea at all. This she did after the start of the war in Ukraine.

Jens Stoltenberg said that the Allies in the Alliance are aware that the war will be of attrition and this is important in terms of continuing military aid and ammunition production. The main priority is not just deliveries, but also guarantees that the equipment already delivered will work. There is a huge need for ammunition, spare parts and more, he said, but clarified that this does not mean F-16 fighter jets will not be delivered.

No one said that Kiev’s offensive would be easy. It will be bloody and a lot of work. On its defense line, Russia has trenches, obstacles for tanks and a huge amount of mines – never seen before, commented Jens Stoltenberg. Ukrainians advance 100 meters a day. We must stay with Ukraine not only in good times but also in bad times. We will support her even if they lose, he added.

The NATO Secretary General was also asked about the use of cluster bombs in Ukraine. Germany’s Dietmar Koester recalled a 2009 EP resolution citing the Oslo Convention banning cluster munitions and calling on all member states to join it. Why has the position changed on this topic, he demanded to know, stating that Ukraine uses cluster bombs supplied by the United States. 90% of the victims – killed and wounded – were civilians, said Dietmar Koester. Sometimes you have to invest in weapons to ensure peace. This is something fundamental that we learn again and again, said Jens Stoltenberg. In response to another question, he noted the importance of standardization in armaments because 80% of NATO’s defense spending now goes to non-EU allies.

The overwhelming majority of voices at the meeting were in favor of continuing aid to Ukraine. “When will Russia begin to feel the horror of war? When will Ukraine’s missiles start falling in Russia”, asked the Bulgarian MEP from the EPP Alexander Yordanov, and applause was heard in the hall. Hungary’s Marton Gondősi demanded to know if NATO has the tools to counter trojan horses within the organization that repeat Russia’s narrative. Tejs Roiten of the Netherlands recalled a previous speech by Jens Stoltenberg in which he said that Ukraine should be given everything it needs to win, but that has not yet been done. He asked for long-range missiles.

How to improve delivery? How can Ukraine guarantee the grain export corridor, given that the Black Sea is not Ukrainian? How could we be present in the waters of Romania and Bulgaria to guarantee this corridor? And will you get the chancellor of Germany to finally deliver the missiles, asked Michael Galler from the EPP, who is the permanent rapporteur for Ukraine in the European Parliament.

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2023-09-07 13:24:00
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