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“We’re seeing a shift in climatic zones.” Will it be warm in Poland as in Italy?
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Hot weather means lower productivity, inform economists from the Polish Economic Institute. Actually – they have nothing to inform about, because the vast majority probably feel this dependence on their own skin. PIE analysts, however, gathered the available and quantified scientific knowledge on this subject in their latest publication. It is crucial as it is already known that high temperatures lower the potential of the entire economy.
13 degrees Celsius – the best temperature for the economy?
As researchers point out, high temperatures have a negative impact on the productivity of not only individual employees, but also entire economies. Citing on research by scientists at Stanford University note that economies perform best with an annual average temperature of around 13 degrees Celsius.
This relationship can be observed at least since 1960 practically all over the world – it functions both in poor and rich countries, both in agricultural countries and those dominated by industry or services
– PIE experts write.
As reported at the beginning of 2021, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, the average annual air temperature in Poland in 2020 was 9.9 degrees Celsius and was 1.6 degrees higher than the norm for the period 1981-2010. “This year was classified as extremely warm. It was 0.2 degrees cooler than the warmest year in the history of instrumental measurements, 2019” – wrote the IMGW.
Do the Stanford University research cited above mean, paradoxically, that the Polish economy would benefit from even much higher temperatures? Proposal it is rather the opposite – above the above-mentioned limit, productivity in the economy drops drastically. American scientists have calculated that if climate change continued at the observed pace, the average world incomes would fall by 23% by 2100. compared to the no climate change scenario. They would also contribute to increasing global income inequality.
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How does heat damage the economy?
Why is high temperatures a dramatic problem for the economy? As reported by PIE experts, there are several possible reasons. First, hot weather means lower yields. Economists refer to estimates showing that (after subtracting the impact of technological development) an increase in global temperature by one degree Celsius translates into a decline in wheat yields by 6%, corn by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%.
Extreme temperatures – as PIE economists argue – are also correlated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, higher temperatures also increase the risk of some natural disasters, includingin. floods caused by heavy rainfall.
We saw their destructive power last week in Germany and other European countries
– PIE economists write, and the flood in the Chinese Zhengzhou could easily be added to this list.
Productivity down sharply
High temperatures also reduce GDP by reducing employee productivity. As PIE analysts explain, it happens in two ways.
First of all, we simply work shorter in hot weather. American research from the local economy shows that the number of hours worked begins to drop sharply if the maximum daily temperature exceeds 30 degrees Celsius.
At higher temperatures, people more often switch from work to leisure. At a temperature of 40 degrees, the daily time spent on work is on average almost 20 minutes shorter than at a temperature of 30 degrees. It is an estimate for the entire adult population (i.e. including retired people, unemployed people and people on vacation on a given day), i.e. the decrease in working time among the employed is higher
– PIE analysts explain, adding that heat has the greatest impact on supply work in agriculture, construction and industry, where an increase in temperature from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius translates into an average reduction of the working day by almost 80 minutes.
Secondly, in boiling water we are not as busy as in boiling water – high temperatures lower the productivity of employees per hour.
Meta-analyzes show that the optimal temperature for office work is around 22 degrees Celsius. At higher temperatures, the performance begins to decline faster and faster. At a temperature of 30 degrees, the productivity of employees drops by more than 9 percent, and at 35 degrees by about 17 percent. compared with the performance at the optimum temperature
– PIE experts indicate.
