Have you already mapped the enthusiasm of the Czechs for helping Ukraine and refugees in a tense situation where, even without war, living expenses are rising?
Experience from past migration waves shows that short-term support is high, while long-term support is uncertain. It depends on how the help will go.
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Politicians are sometimes afraid of short-term costs, but it depends on whether there is a clear plan of institutions, whether they communicate in a structured way and whether integration takes place in a way that will be beneficial for the Czech Republic, etc. Although the government has approved an increase for a day, it’s not enough. And if they are still afraid to add hotels and people to the accommodation of Ukrainians, then they do not understand that long-term good integration will save and increase people’s support, and on the contrary, it is risky to drive refugees to hostels and camps.
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So does the government now have strong support to turn favor into institutional assistance?
Yes. According to a study of 54 wars, about 70 percent of refugees remain in the host country. Of course, there are more scenarios for development in Ukraine, but in short it will not be. Let’s count that a large part will stay here. This has long-term benefits or costs depending on how the integration succeeds.
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For example, whether migrants manage to find professions according to their qualifications, whether children receive quality education. This requires costs, which will be reimbursed with a reward.
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If they work for an average or low-paid wage or have a semi-legal job, even in the short term, this can result in more than 10 billion in levies per year. The impact will also be on the competitiveness of the economy, it is necessary to monitor the benefits of the next generation, etc.
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So the benefits outweigh the costs?
The benefits are greater in the long run. It is not worth dealing with an extra five billion in the first half of the year. The first half of the year is crucial for the integration of children. In the field of education, there is really no point in saving now.
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In the field of education, there is no value in saving now
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If the government counts up to half a million refugees, can such masses be managed?
If a million people come, that is the question, but if there were 400,000 of them and 250,000 remain, it is probably bearable for the housing, education and labor systems. But even that requires extreme effort. If we take into account that out of 250,000 there will be 125,000 children and half of them would go to primary schools, then it is already about seven percent of our primary education.
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What are the key challenges?
There are free capacities in the field of work. Education will require large investments and in housing it requires a two-phase strategy. The first must focus on preventing segregation into substandard housing, such as hostels, in which they are linked to semi-legal labor providers. This requires much greater mobilization of hotels, state accommodation and greater support from solidarity households.
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In the second phase, we must significantly strengthen the supply of housing for all vulnerable groups. Let us invest in the reconstruction of the municipal housing stock with much simpler financing, let us support the reconstruction of private apartments, if the owner then hires them to risk groups.
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Another thing is the guarantee of rental housing, when the tenant pays for it, but the municipality or the state guarantees possible damages for damage, non-payment of rent and so on. And then you can reduce the tax on short-term rentals and focus on empty properties so that the owners release them for the housing market.
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What about modular housing?
It often has a higher standard than hostels and gyms and in the short term it can supplement the housing market supply. But if there are plans to build cities with tens of thousands of people, then it is quite unfortunate. But such housing can also be deployed in various ways around the city.
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How many places can be mobilized now?
Guest houses can generate 60,000 short-term places, which would absorb a large part of the short-term surge. With good support from solidarity households, it can be another 100,000 jobs. There may not be hundreds of thousands of people here in gyms and hostels. But then the state mainly must help create places in rental housing for Ukrainians and Czechs.
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If this fails, a large proportion of refugees may remain in gyms, camps and poor hostels for a long time. Which will have a negative impact on education, work and so on.
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What about employment? So far, mostly women with children come here, but companies want to involve Ukrainian men in assembly plants, in the field…
It is necessary to include children in schools and children’s groups as soon as possible. Companies would help with children’s groups. From the age of three, Ukrainian children should be guaranteed a kindergarten placement as Czech children. This pays off because women would not stay at home.
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But there are two blocks in the labor market. One is the recognition of qualifications. The working structure in Ukraine and the Ukrainians working here is completely different. Let’s expect people with a focus on a wide range to come here.
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We need them to fill positions in caring professions in health care, in nursing homes and in education as assistants, support professions, teachers. But the problem is that the recognition of qualifications and diplomas is quite slow in our country. In Germany and Denmark, if you do not have a certificate, you can even prove that you can do it in some professions. We would need this.
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The other block?
We should remove the language barrier and, in my opinion, Czech language courses should also be provided through employers. Companies should be motivated to do so, because then they can make better use of employees. But the state should also demand it, because if these people work through an agency in a low-skilled position, it is not always necessary for employers to learn Czech.
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For example, in assembly plants, they work 60 hours in a team of foreigners. According to the experience of Denmark, when a person integrates into low-skilled work, where there are other migrants, the local language stops learning. This makes him dependent on the job. Therefore, institutions should push them to education.
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The state should have a register of refugees, including a declared qualification. If the nurse works as a cleaner, she could move her somehow. In general, let us not push for them to find any job quickly at all costs, because the nurses and teachers will then end up as cleaners to pay for a hostel and get stuck.
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It is risky to drive refugees to hostels and camps
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So refugees should have time to calm down mentally, settle down, look around, stabilize housing. When could they start becoming independent?
In Germany, they only dealt with asylum for three to six months. We skipped that, because Ukrainians have the right to stay now. The Germans then supported them for about 18 months in rental housing, so the support in Germany lasted up to two years. This is probably extreme. They should integrate faster with us. They must have maximum support so that children get to school as quickly as possible.
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How high investments are we talking about?
In each area, there are at least higher units of billions, so a total of tens of billions. When you reconstruct the housing stock, support the rentals, you solve the problems we already had to solve. When we solve the shortage of rental housing, it is also beneficial for other people.
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The costs of education and housing do not return immediately, but we cannot save extremely much to avoid the negatives that would last for decades. In the future, it will richly replace the contributions of people who stay in the Czech Republic. Unless they make agreements on the performance of work and semi-legal work.
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What is the black scenario?
If we let them into hostels and at the same time do not support the offer of rental housing, these people may still be in the gyms in December and we will have 150,000 new people in social exclusion. I don’t know how to get rid of the problem.
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We must not allow them to accumulate without recognized qualifications in production halls and warehouses in regions where there is no chance of managing this education at all.
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At first, a lot of people came here who had someone here. But according to Dan Hůle from People in Need, they often ended up in a crowded hostel. Now come those who don’t know anyone here. Management needs to be put in place so that each region is obliged to set up housing, and the burden is spread, at least for a time, so that it does not fall only on Prague and a few larger cities and then on poorer regions with unskilled work. That would be very bad.
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