Several arguments speak against the Ukrainian intelligence version of the downing of the Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber, which crashed in the Russian Stavropol region almost 400 kilometers from the nearest point on the Russian-Ukrainian front, the BBC News server wrote in today’s commentary on its Russian-language website. The Russian Defense Ministry says the bomber crashed due to a technical fault. However, the BBC also mentions the possibility that the bomber could have been accidentally shot down by Russian air defenses, or that Ukraine used some new weapon that it had not boasted about before.
Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence agency claims that Ukrainian forces shot down the bomber using the same means previously used to shoot down a Russian A-50 early warning radar plane over the Krasnodar region. According to the HUR version, the Tu-22M3 was shot down approximately 300 kilometers from Ukraine (which most likely means the distance from the front) and managed to reach the Stavropol Region, where it crashed.
In theory it is possible. In Ukraine’s arsenal, anti-aircraft weapons are technically capable of shooting down an aircraft flying 300 kilometers away, namely the S-200D Dubna of Soviet design.
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The Russian Ch-22 air-to-air missiles that the Russian Tu-22M3s launch against Ukraine have a range of up to 600 kilometers and poor accuracy, so it can be assumed that the bomber pilot was trying to get as close to the target as possible.
But this ends the arguments in favor of the version of Ukrainian intelligence. There are more arguments against.
The time to prepare the S-200 system for deployment is 19 hours, and it would have to be near the front line. The question is whether in a zone of fierce fighting something like this can be kept secret from the enemy for almost a whole day.
The A-50 aircraft referred to by HUR crashed in the Krasnodar region about 230 kilometers from the front line. In this case, it was still possible to assume that it was shot down by an S-200 missile at the limit of its range, however it would be very complicated and probably only possible under the most favorable circumstances for an attack. But 400 kilometers in the case of the Tu-22M3 is too much.
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The warhead of the S-200 missile is highly explosive and very powerful. Hitting an aircraft by multiple fragments of this missile usually results in a complete failure of the control systems. It is practically unrealistic for the aircraft to turn around and fly another 100 to 200 kilometers after being hit.
Already shots from the crash site, it can be seen that the Tu-22M3 is falling in a flat spin and its right engine is on fire. This often happens during a technical fault. An engine fire can also cause a hit by a man-portable anti-aircraft missile or a bird strike, but this is unlikely because these planes fly at high altitudes.
In addition to these hypotheses, the version about “friendly fire” also remains, as well as the possibility that Ukraine used new air defense weapons, which it did not boast of before. It is significant that today the Ukrainian armed forces announced for the first time since the beginning of the war that they had shot down two Ch-22 supersonic missiles launched from a Tu-22M3.
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