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The mother of all battles is about to take place in Gaza between hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers and tens of thousands of Hamas terrorists, among the rubble and among more than two million civilians.
The violence and cruelty unleashed by the Hamas attack a week ago are beyond doubt or comparison. However, the more civilian casualties there are in the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) efforts to rescue the hostages and neutralize Hamas, the more those who despise Israel and its allies will intensify their criticism and support of the terrorists.
What irony also in the actions of the “axis of evil”: Russia supporting Syria to get involved and Iran ordering its Hezbollah proxy to attack from the north. The US and UK plan to move a powerful fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean is a smart strategy to deter others from joining the battle. But both countries, I expect, are willing to put “boots on the ground” to prevent Hezbollah and Syria from moving south.
Although the Gaza Strip is only 25 miles long by eight miles wide, if Israel is to achieve its objectives and minimize casualties, it will need its estimated 400,000 troops. They will have to explore every inch of Gaza carefully and deliberately in order to find and combat the terrorists, who are hiding among the population and undoubtedly using them as human shields. It is wise for Israel to try to clear northern Gaza before the assault.
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Once the IDF clears the north, it is likely they will bring the civilians back there and then clear the south. When the north is cleared, a wave of humanitarian aid must be brought to these people, just as when the south is cleared. There is no shortage of aid in the region, and perhaps this is a role the UN should take on. Some suggest that the UN should play a greater role in preventing conflict in the region, but so far it has been completely ineffective in seeking peace. However, aid distribution should be within its reach at least.
Unfortunately, there are too many tyrants in the world who want to fuel this conflict and start a much wider war in the Middle East. Putin wants to divert support from Ukraine as its forces fight desperately in Donbass and Crimea. Iran aims to destroy the Israeli state and, at a minimum, prevent them from allying with Saudi Arabia, while China watches with satisfaction as Western forces and economies are trapped in the Mediterranean.
In the worst case scenario, if Hezbollah and Syrian forces advance on Tel Aviv without being stopped, Israel could attack Iran directly. The United States has promised to protect Israel, which could also draw it into direct conflict with Iran and Syria, thereby transforming this conflict not only into a regional conflict, but also into a global conflict. This must be avoided at all costs.
I expect it will take weeks, not days, for the Israelis to deal with Hamas, and unfortunately, many civilians will die because of the actions of both sides.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former Commander of the UK and NATO CBRN Forces.
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2023-10-15 16:06:59
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