The cause will be, mainly, in the demand for credit. In a context that remains uncertain and is marked by the tightening of financing conditions, many families decide to postpone their consumption and investment decisions. That is why the demand for credit will be affected throughout this 2023.
Specifically, credit in general will remain practically flat, with slight growth in the case of the business segment, which in recent months has had less drive due to the huge flow of ICO credits that were granted in 2020.
[El frenazo económico llega al crédito: los nuevos préstamos de vivienda, consumo y empresas se ralentizan]
On the contrary, in mortgages there will be a certain slowdown that, in fact, is already taking place, as in consumption. This is, at least, what the bankers expect, as they have been explaining in recent weeks during their respective presentations of results.
“We consider that [el crédito] it will be flat on all products. We expect a little more growth in the business segment because the hangover from the ICO credits is passing”, explained the managers of Sabadellwho were confident that, in their specific case, there would be growth in consumption, given that they currently start “from a lower market share position in relative terms” than the rest.
[Torres (BBVA) responde a Díaz y Belarra por las críticas a sus beneficios: “Hemos sufrido años de pérdidas en España”]
In CaixaBankwhere they come from a year in which they have doubled the new production in mortgages to 14,300 million euros, although with lower production in the fourth quarter, they anticipate that there will be “a certain slowdown in the market”.
“The interest rate situation leads us to think that this is reasonable”exposed Gonzalo GortazarCEO of the Valencian bank, during his presentation of results.
The banker also explained that, from the entity, they estimate that there will be a “slight growth in companies and a slight decrease in consumption.”
For his part, Onur YoungCEO of BBVAtold during his presentation of results that they expect the stock of mortgages experience negative growth. With everything, their forecast is that their credit granting in Spain is completely flat, because they do detect a need for financing on the part of the companies. In consumption, they expect positive dynamics.
The interest margin will grow
Even with everything, the interest margin of the banks in Spain will grow and not a little. The entities themselves have been sharing perspectives of the evolution of their income for 2023 and all agree that there will be a great boost, which will be mainly due to the repricing of the variable mortgage portfolio with the rise in interest rates, which is not over yet.
He Euribor to twelve months experienced a spectacular rise last year that has made variable mortgage payments more expensive. However, the impact will not be limited to 2022, but will continue to be felt in bank accounts throughout this year.
[La banca prevé mejorar su margen un 20% este año tras los beneficios récord y pese al coste del impuesto]
On the one hand, because part of the strongest increases -those at the end of the year- have not been transferred to the cost of mortgages due to the fact that there is a lag of about two months. On the other, because the Euribor, although it does so more slowly, does not seem to be going to stop its rise.
BBVA, CaixaBank and Sabadell forecast increases in their net interest income in Spain of around 20% this year, while Santander forecasts double-digit group-wide revenue growth.
Going into detail, from BBVA they project an increase slightly above 20% for the interest margin of its business in Spain in 2023, while Sabadell expects it to grow between 15% and 20%.
CaixaBank, for its part, shared with the market that expects to bring its interest margin to 9,000 million euros in 2023, a figure that is 30% higher to that registered in 2022 (6,916 million).
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