A Baltic Trio Steps Onto the Global Stage: Will They Shift the EU’s Eastern Unrest?
The European Union struggles to keep pace with the tectonic shifts reshaping its eastern borders. But a new wave of commissioners, hailing from the Baltic states, promise a fresh perspective – and potentially, a more assertive stance.
This surge in influence marks a seismic shift for the EU’s executive arm. Leading the charge is Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s former prime minister, assuming the high-profile role of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. With a history deeply intertwined with Russia’s aggression, she brings a unique understanding of the Eastern threat. In a region haunted by the legacy of communism, Kallas represents a generation that understands the fragility of freedom.
"Those who grew up under communism take freedom more seriously than those who never had to worry about it," observes Edward Lucas, a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Kallas’s experience is not just firsthand; it’s deeply personal. Growing up as a child of deportees under Soviet rule, she holds the weight of history heavily.
"The first EU foreign policy chief whose arrest is sought by the Kremlin… and the first whose family was shoved into cattle cars for deportation to Siberia," the FT reported – a potent reminder of what’s at stake.
Her commitment to European unity shines through. "The strongest protection we have against Russia’s aggression, and for Europe’s position in the world, is European unity," she declared.
Kallas begins her tenure by making a bold statement: a visit to Ukraine on day one, pledging the EU’s support for the nation’s fight against Russia’s invasion. She’s tasked with coordinating the interests of 27 European nations while projecting a unified and assertive European posture – a challenge her predecessor struggled to navigate.
Alongside Kallas, another Baltic leader steps into a crucial role: Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius, the bloc’s new defense chief.
Valdis Dombrovskis, a familiar face returning as economic commissioner, further bolsters the Baltic team. Together, this trio brings a stark contrast to the EU’s past approach to Russia.
While some European countries seek a middle path with Moscow, Kallas, Kubilius, and Dombrovskis signal a shift towards a more resolute approach. Their arrival coincides with a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, raising concerns about unwavering support for Ukraine’s resistance. This uncertainty entrusts the EU, potentially forced to shoulder the financial burden alone, with a life-altering decision – commit significant resources to aid Ukraine or face a devastating humanitarian crisis on its doorstep.
Kallas has signaled where she stands. During her time as Estonia’s Prime Minister, she prioritized military spending, placing her nation significantly above the NATO average. Such actions suggest the Baltic trio will steer the EU towards increased defense commitments and a tougher stance on Moscow.
However, she also needs to broaden her vision beyond Russia. Pablo del Amo of the Royal Institute Elcano in Madrid cautions,”She needs to coordinate her experience and discursive trajectory against Moscow with other perspectives and interests" – including China, the Middle East, and the Global South.
Kallas’s challenge is multi-faceted. She must navigate the diverse interests within the EU, maintain unity against mounting global challenges, and lead from the front in a confrontation with a resurgent Russia while fostering a constructive relationship with a rising China.
Only time will tell if this new generation of leaders can reshape the EU’s global posture, but their arrival embarks on a new chapter, marked by both challenge and opportunity.
