The baht opened this morning at 35.20 baht / dollar, ‘depreciating’ from the previous day’s closing level. ‘Krungthai’ estimates today’s range at 35.00-35.45 baht / dollar.
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank Revealed the trend of the baht on July 7, 2023 that the baht still has a chance to fluctuate and weaken. After the market began to adjust its view (Reprice) the trend of raising interest rates of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which we will be ready to adjust our view on the likelihood of Fed rate hikes as well if the US labor market data report It’s still much stronger than expected, giving the Fed a chance to raise interest rates one more time.
However, market players have gradually realized the trend of employment data that may come out much better than expected. After the previous night’s private payrolls by ADP came out much better than expected. (An increase of almost 500,000 positions, higher than what the market expected, only + 2.3 hundred thousand positions), causing the total employment outside the agricultural sector (Nonfarm Payrolls) and wage growth rate. It must come out much better than expected as well. to be able to support the dollar enough to appreciate further
However, although the dollar may not appreciate much later. If today’s US employment data report does not come out much better than expected. But the baht may face some pressure from the drop in gold prices. If the bond yield on the US side continues to rise
In addition, we believe that foreign investor fund flow volatility should be cautious. after foreign investors began to gradually sell Thai stocks again Due to concerns about the political situation in Thailand, but we expect that the US bond yield will increase. May cause Thai bond yields to increase accordingly. This will help encourage market players like foreign investors. Gradually come back to buy more Thai bonds. which the fund flow in the bond market may be able to mitigate the impact of selling Thai stocks by foreign investors to some extent causing the baht to have resistance in the range of 35.30-35.40 baht per dollar
We recommend that During the period of high volatility in the financial market due to both Thai political factors and changes in market players’ views on the trend of Fed policy interest rates. Entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging tools such as options to increase efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risk.
Look at the baht frame today. Expected to be at the level of 35.00-35.30 baht per dollar. In the period before the release of the US labor market data report. And looking at the baht frame at 35.00-35.45 baht per dollar During the gradual awareness of the US labor market data report
2023-07-07 01:43:04
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