“Kasikorn Research Center” said that the baht last week hit the weakest level in 6 weeks, according to the direction of other currencies in Asia amid expectations that the Fed will not rush to cut the policy interest rate.
The baht weakened past the 33.50 baht per dollar line. It reached its weakest level in 6 weeks (from September 11, 2024) at 33.84 baht per dollar. This is consistent with the picture of devaluation of other currencies. in Asia and the Yuan After the People’s Bank of China announced a reduction in 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates.
While the dollar is moved in value according to the yield of US bonds. that rose amid expectations that the Fed will gradually reduce interest rates. In addition, the market has changed some opinions so that Donald Trump will be able to win the US presidential election this time.
In addition, the depreciation of the baht was consistent with foreign investors‘ net selling position in Thai bonds and stocks during the week. Against the dollar There are positive features from the US economic numbers, such as the PMI index including the manufacturing and service sectors starts for the month of October. and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits each week That came out better than the market expected too.
On Friday, October 25, 2024, the baht closed the domestic market at 33.79 baht per dollar. today stands at 33.16 €. On the previous Friday (October 18, 2024) for the status of foreign investors’ investment portfolio between October 21-25, 2024, foreign investors sold net 2,781 million baht of Thai stocks and had a net external status of 4,094 million baht from the Thai bond market (divided into net sales of bonds 4,084 million baht and debt instruments that ended 10 million baht)
For the week between October 28 – November 1, Bank Kasikorn sees the movement of the baht at the rate of 33.50-34.20 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important things to follow, including export figures/economic reports and salaries in September. from Thailand, foreign capital management and Asian currencies
Meanwhile, important US economic figures include the Consumer Confidence Index. Private sector employment numbers Non-farm payrolls figures Unemployment rate and October PMI/ISM manufacturing index Labor market measure from JOLTS, number of home sales contracts pending closing Inflation rate calculated from Index September PCE/Core PCE prices and GDP numbers for 3Q/2024.
In addition, the market is still waiting for the results of the Japanese general election (October 27), the results of the BOJ meeting (October 30-31), China’s October PMI index, and GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter of 2024. The rate of October inflation of the Eurozone as well.
2024-10-26 03:02:00
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