The atmosphere of the Spring Festival is getting stronger day by day, and the nickel price fluctuates within a narrow range after stocking up

[Spot]The average price of 1# electrolytic nickel in Changjiang Nonferrous Metal Network is 214850 yuan / ton (down 1200). Today LME nickel opened at $27,015/ton, with a high of $27,190/ton, a minimum of $27,015/ton, and a close of $27,020/ton, down 380 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 11 and a position of 1,340.87 million.

[Macro]This Tuesday (January 17) as of 16:22, in the Asian session, the U.S. dollar index fell from a high level, and the latest price of the U.S. dollar was 102.260, a decrease of 0.1%. On January 17, the central parity rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar was lowered by 87 basis points; At present, the market generally believes that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the February meeting is 91%, and the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 9%. As the Fed’s interest rate hike is coming to an end, the dollar is frustrated and falls;

[Inventory]On January 16, the LME nickel inventory was 53,268 tons (an increase of 6 tons from the previous day’s inventory).

[Stainless Steel]Today’s stainless steel futures are slightly red, the atmosphere of the Spring Festival is becoming more and more intense, stainless steel factories have entered the holiday state one after another, and the downstream just-needed stocking is coming to an end. Increase, market sentiment hopes to trade after the year, short-term supply and demand are both weak, and stainless steel is expected to remain weak and volatile at the end of the year.

【Yangtze River Viewpoint】TodayShanghai NickelThe main force 2302 contract was last reported at 204800 and rose 710, an increase of 0.35%. Shanghai Nickel was weak and volatile within the day; China’s GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate was 3%, showing that steady growth is still under pressure; the Qingshan Electrowinning Nickel Project was put into production The news continues to ferment, GEM has put into production 30,000 tons of nickel and gold tons, which is negative for nickel prices; the return of ferronickel and nickel intermediate products in Indonesia continues to increase, the high growth of new energy cannot continue, the overall industrial chain is in a downturn, and the import window of electrolytic nickel is open. The increase in overseas pure nickel imports puts pressure on nickel prices, and the supply and demand of refined nickel may turn into a surplus, and the midline is expected to be bearish. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the market demand is weak, long and short continue to intertwine and nickel prices are insufficiently supported, but the background of low inventory is significant, and the global dominant refined nickel inventory is still at a historically low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate weakly tomorrow. Pay attention to avoiding risks (the above views are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market) Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn

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