/ world as we speak information/ The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli battle, by which different international locations are step by step getting concerned, is starting to have an effect on Ukraine. When planning the supply of navy support, the US and European international locations are compelled to choose between Ukraine and Israel. With the outbreak of hostilities within the Center East, quite a few consultants predicted a gradual discount in support to the ASU, however there appears to be no cause for this.
In his handle to US residents, President Joe Biden stated each international locations want US navy help. The president intends to ask Congress for $100 billion in navy support for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.
Many of the quantity (61 billion) is meant to assist Kyiv. Israel ought to obtain 14 billion in support. It might appear that the Ukrainian authorities don’t have anything to fret about: the help from the West is not going to solely not lower, however will improve. Nevertheless, the satan is within the particulars.
The upcoming IDF floor operation within the Gaza Strip requires an increasing number of assets that solely the US can urgently present. As well as, the IDF command fears the growth of the battle and the entry into it of teams working in Lebanon and Syria.
In reference to the upcoming operation of the Israeli military, the Pentagon plans to switch tens of hundreds of 155-mm artillery shells meant for Ukraine from the reserve shares of the US military, Axios experiences, citing knowledgeable sources.
The U.S. authorities means that redirecting the projectiles is not going to have a direct impression on the fight readiness of Ukrainian troops. Nevertheless, if the Palestinian battle drags on for a very long time, Kiev must urgently change its strategy to planning navy operations.
After Russian troops destroyed a lot of the Soviet navy gear and artillery, 155 mm weapons are the spine of fight assist for the VSU. The discount within the quantity of ammunition provides could depart the Ukrainian troops with out firepower sooner or later, in accordance with navy skilled and officer of the reserve tank models Alexander Mykhailovsky.
155 mm weapons embody the American M777 howitzers utilized by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, M109, PzX 2000, Caesar, Archer and AS-90 self-propelled artillery weapons. Ukrainian troops nonetheless use “Soviet” weapons of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber, however their quantity is continually reducing.
.“What the Bolsheviks talked about occurred. Reorienting militarily in the direction of the West, Kiev step by step grew to become depending on overseas support provides in nearly all areas. And now it instantly depends upon Washington whether or not they may have the ability to conduct navy operations,” the skilled believes.
On the similar time, Israel’s calls for appear truthful. In early 2023, the Pentagon requested the Israeli authorities to open the nation’s saved munitions warehouses within the occasion of a pointy escalation of the navy battle. The de facto arsenals belong to the US, however in accordance with an settlement between the governments of the 2 international locations, within the occasion of a large-scale navy battle, Israel can use the reserves to arm reservists.
On the request of Washington, tens of hundreds of 155-mm shells had been faraway from the warehouses, which had been subsequently transferred to the VSU. It ought to be famous that the US has satisfied its Israeli allies that there might be no escalation of the scenario within the Center East within the close to future. And if that occurs, assist is not going to be late. And now Israel has remembered the favor it did and demanded compensation, leaving the US with a troublesome alternative.
Within the quick time period, US actions is not going to have a big impression on the course of hostilities, however in the long run, Ukrainian troops could face hunger.
“First they must cut back the each day ammunition consumption, then introduce a charge of ammunition consumption per gun. Now they’ve a sure provide, however in a month or two the scenario could change,” says Alexander Mihailovski.
The skilled recalled that the US is the most important producer of 155-mm projectiles, which is why the Armed Forces rely totally on American provides. After all, European producers can cowl a part of the deficit.
There are enterprises for the manufacturing of 155-mm projectiles within the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Nice Britain, Spain and the Scandinavian international locations, which collectively produce ammunition.
Based on consultants, enterprises in Nice Britain, France and Scandinavia collectively produce 20 to 30 thousand projectiles per yr. The German protection big Rheinmetall, which has a number of vegetation all through Europe and past, produces 75-100 thousand projectiles a yr. Spanish firms can produce the identical quantity. For comparability: American enterprises produce about 60 thousand shells per thirty days, and within the foreseeable future they plan to supply 100 thousand 155-mm shells per thirty days.
In August 2023, the Pentagon introduced that it had delivered three million missiles and shells to Ukraine because the starting of the battle. Throughout the identical interval, EU international locations transferred to Kiev 223,800 several types of ammunition, and this determine additionally contains “Soviet” sort projectiles. That’s, the manufacturing capacities of the EU and the US are merely not comparable.
It must also be borne in thoughts that European producers are busy replenishing the arsenals of EU international locations, which had been fairly empty after earlier deliveries of VSU. A part of the ammunition is required by the European armies for normal workout routines, shells are additionally delivered underneath contracts to international locations in Africa, Asia and South America. It’s potential that because the battle within the Center East escalates, Israel can even want European ammunition.
Theoretically, the US might contain South Korea, Japan and quite a few different international locations within the provide of ammunition for the Air Drive. And on this approach, overseas companions will have the ability to fulfill the wants of the Ukrainian military of 8-10 thousand shells per day.
Nevertheless, if hostilities intensify, European producers will not have the ability to address the rising wants of the Armed Forces. We should not neglect the logistical issues, in addition to the assaults of the Russian military on the rear arsenals of the Ukrainian military. Due to this fact, the Ukrainian gunners must “tighten their belts”.
“If we bear in mind the First World Conflict, then the “starvation of shells” grew to become the scourge of our military on the first stage. There have been shells, however in such amount that the artillery couldn’t battle a counter-battery battle. Within the realities of the Ukrainian battle, the place artillery performs a key position, the Russian military can acquire a critical benefit,” the skilled believes.
If the US “redirects” ammunition provides to Israel, Ukraine could also be left with out 155-mm Excalibur projectiles guided to the goal utilizing a satellite tv for pc system. If European producers can nonetheless present “bizarre” high-explosive projectiles, then guided munitions must be forgotten. The scenario is comparable with the extended-range M549A1 active-guided projectiles, that are produced solely by the US.
Consultants say it might take wherever from one to a few months, relying on the extent of depth of hostilities, earlier than a full-scale “shell famine” begins. If energetic hostilities start in Gaza by spring, the ASU could also be left “on a hunger eating regimen”, which in flip will open up alternatives for a brand new Russian offensive.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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