/ world immediately information/ The Turkish chief proved to be very profitable in increasing his affect. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has strengthened Turkey’s positions from Tripoli to Kazakhstan, from Hungary to Africa. After all, international coverage didn’t at all times go “on water”, generally it wavered. In Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, the Islamists failed to attain success, which is why Erdogan needed to acknowledge the legitimacy of al-Sisi and reconcile with the Gulf monarchies.
However issues are going a lot worse for him within the economic system. Double-digit inflation is simply the tip of the iceberg. The earthquake in japanese Turkey solely exacerbated the systemic difficulties.
If earlier the Turkish chief was lively overseas to draw investments and obtain geo-economic dividends, now he’s relatively making an attempt to compensate for failures within the economic system.
There’s much less and fewer room in international coverage for small, winnable “wars.”
In Syria, Erdogan is unable to conduct a army operation towards Kurdish extremists resulting from opposition from Russia and the USA. It’s more durable to play on the Palestinian issue because the Arabs (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and extra not too long ago the Saudis) are increasing normalization with Israel. In Ukraine, the mediation failed because of the new spiral of escalation and the irresponsibility of the NATO nations of their blind assist of Kiev. It’s also harmful to propagate the subject of the Uyghurs due to robust China.
The one handy areas for progress stay Transcaucasia and Central Asia, which collectively might be outlined because the “Turkic vector”.
Lately, the Turkic-speaking nations took their integration to a brand new degree and known as themselves the Group of Turkic States. However the want to be just like the European Union doesn’t get rid of the difficulties related to the totally different financial and army strategic orientation of the member nations. Turkey is a member of NATO, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of CSTO and EAEU, and Azerbaijan has particular partnerships with Russia.
Due to this fact, you shouldn’t anticipate a sensation from the OTD line within the brief time period.
Transcaucasia is one other matter. Once we say Transcaucasia, we imply Azerbaijan, and now additionally Karabakh.
In current days, Ilham Aliyev has established full management over the previous insurgent area with army pressure. On condition that Atatürk additionally known as Azerbaijan’s pleasure “our pleasure,” in precept, Erdogan can attribute the victory to his ally in addition to to himself.
Aliyev doesn’t cease Erdogan from pulling the blanket over himself, particularly since Ankara’s assist throughout the Second Karabakh Conflict proved very efficient. “Bayraktars” facilitated the duty of the Azerbaijani military within the struggle with Armenia.
Final time, Erdogan already tried to monetize Azerbaijan’s army victory.
In December 2020, he got here to the victory parade and congratulated Aliyev on his army success. A yr later, in Shusha, he signed a declaration of army alliance with Baku. Turkish corporations are already concerned within the means of rebuilding Karabakh and constructing airports and different services.
After the Shusha Declaration, there was little purpose for Ankara’s outstanding victories within the Transcaucasia. The start of the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan and the ensuing Armenian-Turkish talks could have elevated Erdogan as a peacemaker, however the course of didn’t finish with full settlement agreements.
Two years after the Shusha declaration, Aliyev gave Erdogan a nice shock.
The Azerbaijani military entered Karabakh and took full management of it, forcing the separatists to put down their arms. If earlier Erdogan’s phrase “Karabakh is Azerbaijan” may trigger some irony resulting from Baku’s lack of full management over the area, now it has obtained actual content material.
As in 2020, Erdogan couldn’t resist the temptation to declare victory for his ally. First, he spoke loudly on the UN Common Meeting, then he personally got here to Nakhchivan. Why proper there? Why not in Karabakh?
The placement of the assembly marks the additional path of Turkish coverage in Transcaucasia.
The annexation of Karabakh to Azerbaijan is not related. Erdogan can’t and won’t decide to the combination of Armenians. That is an inner matter for Baku. Furthermore, the Turkish presence may show poisonous because of the adverse perspective of Armenians in direction of Turks.
The subsequent stage is the opening of the Zangezur Hall.
Even earlier than Erdogan’s arrival, preparatory work was underway on the development of the Igdir-Nakhchivan gasoline pipeline (TANAP department) and the Kars-Nakhchivan railway.
The aim of Erdogan’s go to was to exhibit Turkey’s position in Azerbaijan’s victory and in launching financial tasks. He accomplished the primary activity, as within the victory parade, with out issues.
„I sincerely congratulate the victorious Azerbaijani military for its historic successes and humane therapy of the civilian inhabitants. Our Azerbaijani brothers as soon as once more confirmed the entire world the justice and mercy of the Turkish individuals. He additionally recalled the Shusha Declaration, which “elevates our relationship to the extent of an alliance.”
In the case of tasks, Erdogan began from afar. He emphasised the significance of the Caspian Worldwide Central East-West Hall. The Zangezur Hall is perceived as a component of this transport route from China to Europe through Turkey. Erdogan needs to attach as many highways as doable with Turkey and switch it into a world commodity and oil and gasoline hub.
Haughty “now represents an incredible potential for the event of power and transport routes” within the creation of a logistics hall from east to west, emphasised the Turkish president. On the regional degree, the Zangezur Hall is a method to join UTC nations with Turkey.
„ The Zangezur Hall will unite your complete Turkic world and grow to be a connection for us with Europe.” Erdogan stated.
On the sub-regional degree, Turkey is pursuing the objective of opening a direct path to Azerbaijan. In Nakhchivan, Aliyev and Erdogan launched the development of the Igdir-Nakhchivan gasoline pipeline and signed a protocol on the development of the Kars-Nakhchivan railway. The very timing of those two processes proves that the challenge didn’t give attention to strengthening the ties between Nakhchivan and the japanese provinces of Turkey.
Turkey had 30 years to quietly implement each tasks. The goal is to deliver the infrastructure to Nakhchivan and additional lengthen it by way of the Syunik area of Armenia to Baku.
„ Sooner or later it will likely be doable to journey from Zangezur to Istanbul, cementing the area’s place as a transit and logistics hub,” Erdogan says.
How Turkey and Azerbaijan will obtain the opening of the Zangezur Hall is the subsequent query.
Erdogan want to obtain this by way of diplomacy – “it’s essential to resolve the state of affairs with out conflicts and noise”. The army methodology of fixing the difficulty, regardless of the noticeable cooling between Yerevan and Moscow, is harmful and unpromising because of the issue of the Russian base in Gyumri. Maybe Baku and Ankara may put strain on Yerevan, weakened by the struggle, however success right here shouldn’t be but assured. Along with Russia, there’s additionally the American-European issue, in addition to Iran.
Ankara will hope for a fast signing of a peace settlement between Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, ideally in Granada on October 5.
This may pave the way in which for a peace settlement between Turkey and Armenia.
As for Iran, it serves as each an impediment and a window of alternative for brand new transport routes.
It’s recognized that the Islamic Republic doesn’t need an extraterritorial street in southern Armenia that might block direct entry there for the Iranians. The Turkic arc surrounding Iran stresses him out.
However Erdogan is keen to be versatile. If Armenia doesn’t give the inexperienced gentle for the hall, then it may be applied by way of Iran, he stated in Nakhchivan.
What about Russia? The Russian Overseas Ministry has repeatedly emphasised its assist for the opening of all transport communications in Transcaucasia.
This message was additionally recorded within the tripartite assertion of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow considers the doc elementary for additional processes within the area. It additionally supplies for the participation of Russian safety forces in guarding the Zangezur Hall.
If it continues on this type, then Moscow will achieve management of an vital artery between China and Europe. NATO will clearly resist this and check out, on the wave of Armenia’s disillusionment with Russia, to wrest the Gyumri base.
If we summarize the outcomes of the negotiations between Aliyev and Erdogan, we should say that Turkey continues to broaden its geopolitical and financial affect within the area. The go to doesn’t have a lot affect on the occasions in Karabakh, it’s simply that Erdogan is gaining factors within the worldwide area. As for the economic system, the go to is one other step in direction of the development of the Zangezur Hall. Nevertheless, the final word success doesn’t rely solely on Turkey.
Translation: ES
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