/ world today news/ What the United States did to Europe – undermining the A economy, throwing it on the “Ukrainian front” – did not work in Asia. America’s allies alone, but all are negotiating with China. The aim is to put a pause, to freeze the scandals that these allies of varying degrees of willingness have been waging with Beijing for the past few years. Call it detente or the search for a new formula for “normal” relations in Asia – the essence of the matter remains the same.
Another thing is that this essence is still difficult to calculate. It is clear that the war on two fronts – against Russia and China did not work out for the West. It is not clear why exactly: either Ukraine has disappointed everyone, or the Middle East has crept in unnoticed, or Asia has its own special situation, or all the reasons are present at the same time.
Last weekend, the South Korean city of Busan hosted the first meeting of the foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea after a four-year hiatus. It was decided to expand cooperation in trade, science and technology, development of human contacts and many others. And accordingly to restart the tripartite communication mechanism that has been working for a long time and regularly.
There is a good episode: in Busan there was talk of resuming regular summit meetings and the ministers from Tokyo and Seoul supposedly wanted to organize it right now, before the New Year, and their counterpart from Beijing explained with a smile: no, for such a meeting it is necessary to good conditions are created. That is, they will have to make an effort: China is well aware that it has won the geopolitical battle or one of its rounds in the Pacific region and can afford to dictate certain conditions to American satellites. He will dictate long and with pleasure.
The story with Japan and South Korea repeats exactly what happened with Australia. The long and shameful anti-Chinese campaign there ended, the new prime minister came to Beijing and restarted relations. As before? Not at all. Australia’s involvement in some vague equivalent of a Pacific NATO has not disappeared. The participation of the same Tokyo and Seoul in the renewed and strengthened trilateral cooperation with the US (which was discussed in August at Camp David) remains in force. This cooperation includes the deployment of a new type of medium-range missile in Asia and much more.
That is, the formula that the satellites present to Beijing looks like this: we are friends with the United States against you and arm ourselves just in case, but if there is no case, then please let us communicate and trade as before.
And why not try to do all this if the US itself is trying to do something similar: it was they who started the search for a formula for detente, held a meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in San Francisco. And, apparently, they backed off with panicked calls and graciously consented for everyone else to follow them.
What if they didn’t give it? Here we must consider the difference between Europe with its involvement in the Ukrainian adventure and Asia. We look at the trade balance of Japan and South Korea. Who is their main partner: China, with the US in second place. Same with Australia. Russia was extremely important to Europe (gas and oil), but still not its first trading partner.
That is, the American idea of populating the Western Pacific with evil instigators of China works much harder than the same in Europe. Just look at the behavior of relative newcomers to such a role – the Philippines and Vietnam – with their territorial maritime disputes with their big neighbour. The Philippines is a special case, they love grand ops. But Vietnam, where the American presidents came for “strategic partnership”, has exactly the same picture in terms of the economy. The main trading partner is China ($235 billion in trade turnover annually), and Beijing’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has just visited that country to negotiate further development of links, including a high-speed rail line from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City Min.
Obviously, all politics in this region in the coming years will be reduced to exercises in the great Asian art of sitting on two chairs. If only because everyone in the region sees (with or without taking into account the experience of unhappy Europe) that one should not rely 100% on the USA.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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