Canada is still begging for fair treatment from the United States. Mexico too. Both countries should achieve this fairly easily given North American economic integration. But the price to pay is high, especially for Canada.
Since the early 1980s, Canada has renounced any economic or cultural policy that would distance it from the United States. The result is that Canada is Americanizing faster than ever. Even Quebec, which is still quite different from the United States, is integrating itself more and more into the United States. Yet the United States comes at a very delicate moment in its history. A time when Canada and Quebec should move away from them.
1. How dependent is Canada on the United States?
Exports generate 29% of the Canadian economy. Exports to the United States account for approximately 75% of merchandise exports. It may sound like a lot. Yet globally, in terms of regional integration, Canada is average. The problem stems from American investments in Canada, which represent about 50% of foreign investments. Since the US economy is ten times the size of Canada’s, the long-term trend is against Canadian ownership. But beyond the economy, Canada is almost completely dependent on the United States for its defense. Above all, the cultural dependence of Canada and Quebec on the United States continues to increase.
2. Is Mexico as dependent on the United States as Canada?
Mexico’s exports account for 34% of its GDP and 80% of these exports go to the United States. Almost 50% of Mexico’s foreign investments are American. Its army is much less powerful than that of Canada. Economically and militarily, Mexico is therefore more dependent on the United States than Canada. Culturally, however, the American influence is weaker in Mexico than in Canada.
3. Where does dependence on the United States lead?
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the importance of having strong and diverse regional production chains. This should strengthen economic integration on a North American scale and therefore increase the dependence of Canada and Mexico on the United States. More economic dependence leads to a weakening of Canada’s decision-making centers. More military dependence leads to the global marginalization of Canada. More cultural dependence leads to the total Americanization of the country.
4. What can Quebec and Canada do to reduce this dependence?
It is very difficult to fight against the acceleration of economic dependence on the United States, especially since the other pole of the world economy, China, is becoming infrequent for democracies, given its totalitarian turn. However, military dependency can be lessened with more investment in the military. Cultural dependence could be slowed down with a real enhancement of French culture in Canada and Quebec.
But American-inspired multiculturalist policies and the anti-Quebec hatred of many English Canadians make this solution utopian for the moment.
5. Can Justin Trudeau help reduce this addiction?
The task would be immense for a strong Prime Minister surrounded by a strong team. This is not the case with the Trudeau government. But more fundamentally, Canada’s military and cultural dependence on the United States is not seen by Trudeau and his team as problems. Moreover, a large part of the Quebec and Canadian population thinks as they do.
