As with the rate of electric vehicle penetration, which has accelerated dramatically since the start of this decade, renewable energy also shows sharp acceleration in growth rates. From the second half of 2019 There was a significant increase in investment in renewable energy, which accelerated sharply towards the end of 2021. The main reason for investor interest in renewable energy sources is that Solar and wind generation have become the cheapest forms of energy, and therefore the most attractive for investment. So, for example, it is expected that the volume of investments in solar generation alone this year will exceed the volume of all global investments in oil production.
Considering that in the period from 2010 to 2022, the contribution of renewable energy sources to the total growth of electricity generation exceeded 57%then against the backdrop of such an increase in investment, we can expect that in the coming years, renewable energy sources will take a dominant role in increasing the global level of electricity generation.
A faster pace of development of solar and wind generation compared to previous electricity production technologies indicate that they have the potential to at least partially displace fossil fuel electricity generation from the market.
For example in Europe, this trend has been observed for a long time and by 2022, renewable energy sources – wind and solar (even without hydropower) have become the main source of electricity. At the same time, the trend towards rapid growth of renewable energy in Europe will continue: Europe is now demonstrating a record pace of solar generation commissioning in its history, exceeding 50 GW of capacity per year. Thus, the transition to renewable energy sources in Europe is no longer a distant mythical future, but an established trend. Meanwhile in Russia they continue to yearn for the blown up Nord Streams and the European gas market, to which Russia is no longer destined to return.
The United States will soon join this trend. Thus, in the next 12 months, the rate of commissioning of new solar capacity there will triple while maintaining a stable dynamics of wind power commissioning, as a result of which the installed capacity for the production of electricity from fossil fuels is expected to reduce for the first time. Consequently, the United States, like Europe, will begin to reduce the use of fossil fuels for electricity production.
At the same time, despite such successes in Europe and the United States, the world leader in the volume of renewable energy input is China. Despite this, the growth rate of electricity consumption there exceeds the generation capacity of new renewable energy sources; as a result, China continues to increase the production of electricity from fossil fuels, mainly coal. However, a sharp slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the beginning of a population decline in the Middle Kingdom, coupled with plans to further increase the volume of commissioned renewable energy sources and nuclear generation, may also lead to the fact that renewable energy sources will begin to displace traditional thermal generation in China.
The development of renewable energy sources, however, raises the question of the need to build electricity storage capacities. And here, too, there is significant investment and an increase in the commissioning of such capacities. Thus, China, which as of May of this year had 50 GW of PSPP capacity (pumped storage power plants), accounts for 30% of all installed such capacity in the world. At the same time, 89 GW of such capacities are already at the construction stage in the Celestial Empire, and another 276 GW of capacities are at various stages of consideration.
Such capacities are being actively built and commissioned in Europe., the volume of which as of last year was 44 GW with the overall current plan for commissioning new capacities of 11.7 GW. In the United States, where such capacities have not been introduced for a very long time, and their volume is only 23 GW, 2.6 GW of new capacities are under consideration.
The US lag in pumped storage power plants is caused primarily by the geographical features of the US territory: in the east, where there is enough precipitation and water sources, there is no suitable terrain for the construction of pumped storage power plants, and the mountainous West is in an arid zone. As a result, the United States is relying on batteries for energy storage: in the next 12 months alone, the capacity of installed batteries in the United States will double and exceed the capacity of all pumped storage power plants operating in the country. And as production volumes of lithium-ion batteries grow, the pace of commissioning of such capacities will only increase.
In addition, the United States has begun construction of the world’s first industrial battery power plant using promising metal-air batteries, which, on the one hand, are much cheaper than lithium-ion batteries, and on the other, have a much higher energy density. Mastering this technology will significantly increase the pace of battery introduction not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world. At the same time, the massive decommissioning of old coal power plants in the United States and Europe makes it possible to use their already prepared sites and network infrastructure for the construction of such storage capacities, providing a significant reduction in the costs of their commissioning.
In China, in August of this year, the world’s first experimental station on sodium-ion batteries, which I have already mentioned, was put into operation in the previous post. Such batteries are promising both for industrial use and for home energy storage systems from solar panels on the roof. Their only drawback in relation to lithium-ion batteries – lower energy storage density – in this application will be absolutely unimportant, unlike electric vehicles, but will significantly reduce the cost and payback of such systems for end consumers, increasing demand for them.
Thus, the world is truly on the verge of an energy revolution and will be able to significantly reduce its dependence on fossil fuels in the coming decades.
The rapid development of renewable energy sources and electricity storage technologies removes from the agenda the question of where the electricity for electric vehicles will come from. Considering that Energy consumption of electric cars per 1 km can be up to 4 times less than that of cars with internal combustion enginesrenewable energy sources will easily be able to squeeze oil out of the motor transport sector in the coming decades, given that their value continues to decline rapidly.
At the same time, RES also provide other benefits for energy systems: distributed generation, primarily sunny, increases the stability of electrical networks, making it possible to reduce the costs of their construction due to the inclusion of a lower power reserve factor. Given that grids account for roughly half of the final cost of electricity to consumers, this is beneficial for the entire economy. In addition, distributed energy reduces network electricity losses, acting as an additional factor in the efficiency of renewable energy sources.
Something tells us that the golden days for the world’s energy exporters are coming to an end. Let’s not, as they say, point fingers.
Alexey Tikhonov
! The author’s spelling and style have been preserved
2023-09-17 03:50:45
#Renewable #Energy
