The first thing you need in politics is to know how to count, the Democratic president of the USA used to say Lyndon Johnson. To paraphrase him, we would talk about “counting the beans”. Twenty-four days before the crucial US presidential election on November 5, “counting the beans” with the weapons at our disposal, that is, the polls, assumes extreme importance. And polls still show that the battle for the US presidency between Democratic nominee and current vice president <a href="https://www.world-today-news.com/donald-trump-whats-behind-the-us-presidents-baltimore-attack/" title="Donald Trump: What's behind the US President's Baltimore attack”>Kamala Harris and Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump, will be decided in the thread.
Because even though the polls give Harris a three-point lead statewide (49% to Trump’s 46%), the battle will be decided in the seven lopsided states, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. In four of them (Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin) Harris has a lead of one to two points. The total number of electors in all the two-party states is 93. The four states in which the vice president has a lead elect 50 electors. If she wins those four states, Harris will be closer to the desired number of 270 electors, out of a total of 538, needed to be elected president of the United States.
The most critical battle
Particularly crucial for the battle of the two states is its battle Pennsylvania for three reasons: first, because it is the undecided State with the most electors (19), second, because for months the polls had the candidates of the two parties tied in Pennsylvania and, third, because as political analysts point out, it is impossible – and that’s about both candidates – winning the election without winning in Pennsylvania. Indicative of the importance given by the campaign staffs of the two parties in this particular State is that in the period from January 1 to October 8, the Democrats spent 180 million dollars in political advertising compared to 170 million dollars of the Republicans, while for the election battle of Michigan, the second most critical of the ambivalent States, the sums spent were $120 million by the Democrats and $88 million by the Republicans.
However, in addition to the “number of beans”, a factor that can influence the last period of the US election campaign are the so-called “October surprises”, i.e. the events that can happen during October, of the last month before the American elections which take place every time on the first third of November. The term “October surprises” is credited to William Casey, the head of his election campaign Republican president Ronald Reagan in the 1980 elections.
The hurricanes of October
This year, the “October surprises” include fall hurricanes affecting certain areas of the US such as Hurricane Helene, which hit the states of North Carolina and Georgia, and Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida on Wednesday night and for which forecasters were warning residents that it was expected to be extremely severe. Trump was quick to take political advantage of the US government’s response to those affected by Hurricane Helene, stressing that his administration Joe Biden instead of caring for the affected, it gives money to immigrants. His claims are false, but the Republican candidate knows what he’s doing, holding a two-point lead in Georgia and less than one point in North Carolina. These two States elect 32 electors, more than one-third of the 93 electors given by the seven ambivalent States.
Problems caused by natural disasters, such as hurricanes, can contribute to lower turnout in US elections. There is the historical precedent of Hurricane Katrina on August 31, 2005, in New Orleans, which killed 1,392 people and caused $125 billion in damage. Although the hurricane did not occur during an election year, the fact that the administration of the Republican president George Bush of the youngest, who was elected in 2004, his failure to respond to the disaster was one of the reasons (along with the Iraq war, of course) that the Republicans lost the 2006 midterm elections.
Woodward’s book
The “surprises of October” could also include the release of the award-winning journalist’s new book Bob Woodward (who together with his colleague at the newspaper “Washington Post” Carl Bernstein had exposed the Watergate scandal that brought down the administration of the Republican president Richard Nixon in 1974). The book, titled ‘War’, to be released next week, reveals Trump’s close contacts with the Russian president Vladimir Putineven after he leaves the U.S. presidency in early 2021. In late 2020, Woodward writes, and while the planet was living in terror of the pandemic, the U.S., like many countries, was facing shortages in coronavirus diagnostic tests , Trump sent Putin the precious tests. In the spring of 2024, Trump reportedly spoke to Putin by phone, one of seven times he spoke with him over the past four years. The fact that a former US president is talking to Putin who is fighting against Ukraine, an American ally, makes Trump worse and more dangerous than Nixon, according to Woodward.
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