The 5 reasons why Ile-de-France is still not confined despite alarming figures

On Wednesday, during his press briefing following the Council of Ministers, Gabriel Attal, the government spokesman, was bombarded with questions on the subject: why the Ile-de-France is not confined, like the ‘said Jérôme Salomon, the boss of the Directorate General of Health (DGS) on Tuesday? However, the figures are alarming, with an incidence rate still rising, at 352.10 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 inhabitants on Wednesday, well above the alert threshold of 250 set by the government. And the positivity rates in five Ile-de-France departments (13% in Seine-Saint-Denis, 11.8% in Val-d’Oise, 11.7% in Seine-et-Marne, 10.8% in Val- de-Marne and 10.5% in Essonne) the highest in France, ahead of those of Pas-de-Calais (10.3%) and the Alpes-Maritimes (9.7%), however confined at weekends.

As a good balancing act, Gabriel Attal on Wednesday recognized “a worrying situation” in Ile-de-France before evoking “the balance between the need to take into account specific territorial features and readability at the national level”. Thursday, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran, should hammer the argument before detailing the reasons pushing not to confine the Ile-de-France.

1 – Hospitals can still hold out (for now)

Tuesday, Jérôme Salomon assured that the situation in the hospitals was still tenable. In reality, the Ile-de-France Regional Health Agency (ARS) is increasing the number of instructions to avoid reaching the breaking point. While there were, Wednesday, 1,034 patients in the intensive care units for “less than 1,050” beds available, the ARS gave, Monday, “the firm order” to hospitals and clinics to deprogram 40% of their activities less urgent medical and surgical procedures to increase reception capacities (up to 1,577 intensive care beds).

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“A certain number of medical evacuations” will take place “in the coming days”, in order to transfer patients from Ile-de-France but also from Hauts-de-France to other regions, Gabriel Attal announced on Wednesday. , after the Defense Council and the Council of Ministers.

2 – We do not confine Ile-de-France like that

In the health crisis, the Ile-de-France region is outside the norm because, despite its small size, it presents very significant disparities due to its number of inhabitants. If all the departments have exceeded the alert threshold of an incidence rate established at 250 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants, the Yvelines only have a rate of 272.9, far from the alarming rate of Seine-Saint-Denis, at 441.5.

However, as explained by Valérie Pécresse, the president of the region, on RTL on February 28, “it is improbable to confine Paris without confining the whole region”. The public transport network centralized in Paris, the intense movement of goods and people and the continuity of the urban fabric between the departments impose common restrictions: a measure taken for Seine-Saint-Denis must be taken for the Seine- and-Marne.

3 – The economic impact would be too great

Unlike departments like Pas-de-Calais, there is double pressure in Ile-de-France: on the one hand, health pressure is increased; on the other, entire sections of the local economy, already very fragile, want to avoid the option of confinement at all costs. According to his record drawn up for 2020 and made public in January, the Paris Region institute estimated that around 180,000 jobs had been destroyed during the first confinement, last spring. And more than 3 million Ile-de-France employees have been affected by partial unemployment, or two out of three salaried jobs.

On March 2, Pôle Emploi Ile-de-France also reported alarming figures, with, among other things, 100,000 more unemployed in a year in the region. Young people are the most affected. The recovery is not yet real, these figures could worsen in the event of further confinement.

4 – Social risks are real

“There is no political will to confine the Ile-de-France for economic, psychological, political reasons”, explained on BFMTV on Tuesday the deputy LREM Sacha Houlié, who developed: “If we confine the Ile-de-France on weekends, we know very well that there will be some who will be able to leave it and not others. And there we create inequalities. ” “People are fed up and we can not blame them”, further assured the elected, thus summarizing one of the main political motivations not to confine the Ile-de-France: the degree of acceptability of the measured by the population.

Also interviewed by BFMTV, last week after a meeting with the prefect, Azzédine Taïbi, the mayor of Stains (Seine-Saint-Denis), also argued that, in his department, “the inhabitants do not experience the situation in the same way as when they are in places where there is space “. “Three quarters of people live in housing, are already confined almost all year,” he insisted.

5 – there are political blockages

These socio-economic concerns, local elected officials have not ceased to express them for two weeks. The elected officials who demanded confinement – starting with the first deputy mayor of Paris Emmanuel Grégoire – are very much in the minority. Conversely, the great elected officials of Ile-de-France, including the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo and the president of the region Valérie Pécresse, refuse confinement.

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“The more we restrict public spaces and ventilation times for families, the less we fight against Covid”, assured Anne Hidalgo in a statement on March 1. “This is what we learned from the first confinement: outside, we are less likely to catch the Covid when we wear a mask and we respect barrier gestures”, said she insisted again.

Did this open opposition play into the government’s decision? “When we do a local consultation, we take into account the opinions of local actors”, replied Gabriel Attal Wednesday. But there is also a national stake: Emmanuel Macron made the bet at the end of January not to reconfigure the country, unlike several of his European counterparts. Put under cover Ile-de-France, which concentrates a fifth of the population, could sound like a disavowal for its strategy.

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