With a prime minister not due to be appointed until August 23, the new government will have at best a few weeks to finalize the next budget, an unprecedented and potentially perilous situation.
What schedule?
The annual draft finance bill (PLF), one of the only mandatory legislative texts, particularly enormous and complex, must be submitted to Parliament no later than the first Tuesday in October, i.e. October 1 this year.
Previously, it must have been presented to the Council of Ministers, and before that it must have received the opinions of the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP) and the Council of State.
After the debate in the National Assembly and the Senate, the finance law must have been adopted, promulgated and published before the following January 1.
Where are we?
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire sent proposals for credits for 2025 to Matignon at the beginning of August, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal responsible for passing them on in future “ceiling letters” to the ministries, modifying them where appropriate.
The copy submitted by Bercy is virtuous, with suggestions for reductions in expenditure allowing us to remain “in the trajectory” promised to Brussels a return of the public deficit – State, Social Security and local authorities – to 3% of GDP in 2027.
For his part, Budget Minister Thomas Cazenave has just frozen ten billion euros of the 2024 budget, for a total of 16.5 billion euros of freezes this year, which the new government will do with as it wishes.
Matignon promised on Wednesday that the ceiling letters would be sent “in the next few days” without however “preempt the final decisions that will be made by the next government”.
On time?
The future prime minister will not be named until at least next Friday, the day of a meeting at the Elysée between Emmanuel Macron and parliamentary forces, and the clock is ticking.
“We can defuse the debate by considering that 90% of the budget is already known”from one year to the next, however, underlines Jean-René Cazeneuve, Renaissance MP for Gers and former general rapporteur of the Budget. “Of course the budget is a political act, but the new measures, in terms of revenue or expenditure, do not represent the bulk of the budgetary masses.”
The budget teams of the ministries will begin to put to music the score sent by Matignon and the new government will undoubtedly still have a little time to add its touch to the text.
Failing that, he could still proceed by amendments during the parliamentary discussion.
More “for what budget?”a government source is already worried. “If it is a budget that spends more, that would pose another problem, with regard to the markets”already vigilant about France at present, she says.
Especially since France, the target of an EU procedure for excessive deficit, like six other countries, must also present its medium-term plan to get back on track by September 20.
– Will the PLF be voted on? –
It will be “a moment of truth”estimated Thomas Cazenave in Sud-Ouest on Thursday, hoping that “Discussions will begin between all political groups at the end of August” on two options, “an agreement” pure and simple on a text, or at least an agreement “on non-censorship of the budget”in the event of recourse by the government to 49.3.
Jean-René Cazeneuve advocates a simple text, containing “fundamentals on which we can agree”.
A majority source believes that “The more ambitious you are, the more you provoke negative reactions from part of the hemicycle”. Especially since “Many political parties could practice the politics of the worst” in view of the 2027 presidential election, according to her.
– What if the budget is not adopted? –
In this case, during 2025, “we would no longer be able to ensure the normal functioning of public services (nor) the pay and pensions of our public employees (or) a certain number of benefits which are revalued each year”warns Thomas Cazenave.
The organic law on finance laws (Lolf) nevertheless provides that in the event of a blockage, the provisions of the PLF may be adopted by order.
