The beginning of 2024 was overshadowed by the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit the Noto Peninsula. Of course, it is necessary to continue to do our best to respond to disasters by responding to the disaster victims, but this does not mean that we cannot cover up suspicions and problems other than the earthquake, or overlook movements that take advantage of the disaster. Politics and money, constitutional amendments, tax increases in the name of reconstruction, restarting nuclear power plants… How should we respond to the “shock doctrine”? (Joe Miyahata, Ikuko Kihara)
“Since I still have official duties related to the earthquake, I will only have two more questions.”
Prime Minister Kishida greets the Liberal Democratic Party at the start of its new year’s work at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters in Nagatacho, Tokyo, on the 5th.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s New Year’s press conference was held from 4:30 pm on the 4th. Although he answered questions about the Noto Peninsula earthquake and the issue of “politics and money,” the Cabinet spokesperson ended the press conference by saying the following: When I checked the Prime Minister’s movements at the time, I found that he later met with the Chief Cabinet Secretary and others in charge of disaster response for about 15 minutes. However, he has no particular plans until around 7:30 p.m., when he leaves the official residence for his TV appearance.
◆Prime Minister Kishida, speaking on TV, receives criticism one after another
“Right now is not the time to be on TV.” Mr. Kishida was criticized online for appearing while search and rescue operations were in progress for those missing, as well as talking about his prospects for re-election as party president in areas other than disaster response. Furthermore, on the 5th, questions were raised about the fact that he went to three New Year’s parties to greet each other, including three economic organizations and the Federation.
On the same day, Kenta Izumi, representative of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, criticized the smaller scale of the Self-Defense Forces’ activities compared to the Kumamoto earthquake, saying, “The Self-Defense Forces have been deployed one after another, and they are too slow and small-scale.”
◆Did the tide of government change due to the earthquake?
However, despite such criticism, a public opinion poll conducted on the 6th and 7th by JNN, a commercial broadcaster and TBS affiliate, found that 57% of people answered that they thought the government was responding swiftly. Ta. Just ten days ago, the Kishida administration was in a state of turmoil due to the “politics and money” issue, including the political party slush fund incident. According to a Kyodo News poll, the percentage had fallen to 22.3%, approaching the 14% level just before the Liberal Democratic Party lost ground in 2009. Did the tide suddenly change due to the earthquake?
Self-Defense Forces personnel head to treat disaster victims in Otani-cho, Suzu City, Ishikawa Prefecture, where a state of isolation continues on the 9th.
Political journalist Hiroshi Izumi says, “Major incidents and accidents have a positive effect on the cabinet’s approval rating.They allow the prime minister to stay in the forefront and make his presence felt.”
However, “Mr. Kishida is not taking advantage of this at all. He keeps appearing at New Year’s parties and talking about things that don’t need to be said on TV.” At his New Year’s press conference, Kishida announced that he would establish a “Political Reform Headquarters (tentative name)” within the Liberal Democratic Party. However, as the faction itself is being viewed as a problem, the plan is to appoint Vice President Taro Aso as the headquarters’ top advisor. “It is impossible to dissolve the faction. Mr. Aso is the boss of the faction. I don’t get the sense that he is serious at all.” (Mr. Izumi)
◆“Politics and money” toned down
On the 7th, Yoshitaka Ikeda, a member of the House of Representatives, and others were arrested. It is reported that investigations into other members of Congress are nearing completion, and reporting and discussion on the issue of “politics and money” should have reached its peak by now, but with the amount of coverage and public interest focused on the earthquake, it has been toned down. There is also a feeling.
Furthermore, once the regular Diet session begins, members of the Diet have the privilege of not being arrested during the Diet session, and even in the case of an exceptional arrest, a request for permission to arrest is required, which may prevent the investigation by the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office from making any progress. There is also gender.
Lawyer Yasuyuki Takai, a former special investigation department prosecutor, said, “If we were to arrest Abe’s pro-secretary generals and others, there is a high possibility that they would go through the regular session of the Diet.” Requesting permission to arrest would require showing the evidence, which would be a hurdle for prosecutors. “It’s expensive,” he says. As a result, there is a risk that the “politics and money” issue will come to an end without fundamental reform.
◆Constitutional amendment debate rears its head over “state of emergency clause”
On the other hand, in the wake of such major disasters, calls for constitutional amendment to include a state of emergency clause have arisen.
The House of Representatives Constitution Review Committee held on December 13, 2023, in the Diet.
At the New Year’s press conference on the 4th, Prime Minister Kishida said, “There is no change in my desire to implement the amendment during my term as president, and I will do my best to move the discussion forward.”This year, we will work to flesh out the proposed provisions and cross party lines. We will accelerate the discussion.” At the House of Representatives Constitution Review Committee in December last year, the Liberal Democratic Party proposed that a working body be established at the regular Diet session to be convened in January this year to draft constitutional amendments, such as extending the term of office of members of the Diet in a state of emergency and prohibiting the dissolution of the House of Representatives. ing.
The party’s four amendments to the constitution include state of emergency clauses that limit individual rights such as freedom of movement in the event of a major disaster, along with a clear mention of the Self-Defense Forces. Shusaku Iguchi, a professor of constitutional law at Ehime University, points out, “State of emergency clauses have become a hot topic due to the experience of the Great East Japan Earthquake, but there is a danger that this earthquake will also be seen as a good example.”
“For example, if an earthquake like this one were to occur the day before the announcement of the election, we might push through the proposal to extend the term of office of the assembly members.However, if you think about it, it is probably only in the Noto area that even this earthquake would make elections difficult.” We need to calmly look at the question of whether it is really necessary to extend the terms of office for all members of the Diet, precisely because we are in a time of a major disaster.”
◆ Fear that the earthquake disaster will trigger a tax increase
Since Prime Minister Kishida has the nickname “tax increase glasses,” there is a possibility that he will use the disaster as a cover to raise taxes. In fact, a special reconstruction tax was introduced after the Great East Japan Earthquake. However, the special income tax for reconstruction has effectively become a permanent tax increase.
“We have a debt-ridden finance, and even though so many disasters have occurred, we always end up in a state of tears, having to deal with them with supplementary budgets after disasters occur.If we decide to issue national bonds again this time, In the end, it will be necessary to increase taxes to pay for it,” points out Kazumasa Oguro, a professor of public finance at Hosei University.
Police officers search the scene of a large-scale fire amid heavy snow in Wajima City, Ishikawa Prefecture on the 7th.
“We must take proactive measures to avoid this kind of reactive response,” he said. ‘Accounting’. He added, “There are many things that should have been put in place before the tax increase, such as pre-funding accounting for reconstruction funds, and the tax increase is just the price for not doing so.”
◆ Possibility of restarting the nuclear power plant due to “no abnormalities”
As the Kishida administration advocates for the promotion of nuclear power, there is a possibility that the government may take advantage of the fact that there were no abnormalities after the major earthquake and move forward with restarting the Hokuriku nuclear power plant. The two sites are Hokuriku Electric Power’s Shiga Nuclear Power Plant (Ishikawa Prefecture), which is close to the epicenter, and Tokyo Electric Power Company’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Niigata Prefecture), for which the Nuclear Regulation Authority lifted its operational ban order in December last year.
Hokuriku Electric Power’s Shiga Nuclear Power Plant hit by a major earthquake in Shiga Town, Ishikawa Prefecture
Natsuka Mitsuda, executive director of the international environmental NGO FoE Japan, said, “Many roads have been cut off.If the earthquake and the nuclear power plant accident occur together, it will be impossible to evacuate.The reality of each nuclear power plant’s evacuation plan will also be called into question. “Monitoring posts around the Shiga nuclear power plant have also become unable to measure measurements. We need to verify whether earthquake estimates, including those at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, have been underestimated.”
The Shock Doctrine uses the cover of shock, such as a major disaster or major incident, to move forward with something else. Mitsuda explains, “During disasters, there is a tendency to declare a state of emergency and forcefully pass policies favorable to the government.People are more susceptible to suppression of speech, such as, “What’s the point in criticizing the government?”
Professor Toshiya Yoshimi (sociology) of Kokugakuin University said, “Noto is a unique region in Japan that has been separated from Japan’s developmentalism and has sought to revitalize itself with completely different values. “It’s a very profound place,” he says. He says, “If we can once again appreciate the richness of Noto, we can’t afford to ignore the “shock doctrine” that takes advantage of the crisis.If forced to do so, it could destroy our precious potential.”
◆Desk memo
When the novel coronavirus was still being referred to as the “new type of pneumonia,” the focus of debate in the Diet was former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “cherry blossom viewing party” issue. However, the infection soon spread within the country, and a state of emergency was declared, and investigations into the matter came to a halt. It’s the shock doctrine. You can’t miss seeing that reenactment. (Ayumu)
2024-01-10 03:00:00
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