The hurricane season for 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most active in recent years, according to meteorology experts. With a set of conditions tilted toward the formation of major hurricanes, such as record warm ocean temperatures and the possible presence of a La Niña event, coastal communities face a worrying forecast.
Experts warn that this season could be different due to conditions that point to a “perfect storm” for the formation of major hurricanes. According to National Geographic, records of record warm ocean temperatures are causing concern among meteorologists.
Two and a half months into the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through November, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have already reached record values, according to Matt Rosencrans of the Prediction Center. NOAA Climate. “Sea surface temperatures in what we call the main Atlantic development region… are 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 F) above normal,” the specialist explained.
The influence of La Niña is another crucial factor in hurricane activity. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alternates water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean every three to seven years.
While El Niño tends to suppress the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic due to increased wind shear, La Niña has the opposite effect, reducing this wind shear and favoring the creation of hurricanes.
This eventual transition during the peak of the hurricane season, which runs from June to November, could lead to a significant increase in cyclonic activity. “The exact timing of this transition is crucial and can significantly alter the outlook for the season,” warns DaSilva. Although long-term forecast models cannot pinpoint the formation of individual storms, the combination of warm waters and the influence of La Niña suggests an elevated risk of strong storms in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Long-range forecast models cannot yet indicate when or where individual storms will emerge, but the current combination of conditions suggests an increased likelihood of significant storms affecting hurricane-prone areas, especially around the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It also points out the importance of people in these areas “having their hurricane plans ready” given the potential for rapid intensification of tropical systems.
The experts’ recommendation is clear: populations in risk areas must prepare their hurricane contingency plans, considering the possibility of rapid intensification of tropical systems. The previous season, marked by an active El Niño, featured 20 named storms and seven hurricanes, despite the apparently unfavorable conditions generated by the biting wind.
On average, a hurricane season includes 14 named tropical storms, of which seven reach hurricane status. The previous season, influenced by an active El Niño, recorded 20 storms and seven hurricanes, despite unfavorable conditions created by sharp winds. This year, however, the combination of exceptionally warm waters in the Atlantic and the potential shift toward La Niña could result in an even more active season.
#hurricane #season #extraordinarily #active #due #Niña #factor #Diario #Página
