The 2021 forecast housing sales market is variable in a stable jeonse market

[2021전망] The home sales market is stable… The jeonse market is variable
Due to the decrease in the purchase tax on the home, the rise in the selling price is limited due to the housing supply policy.
Concerns about instability in the cheonsei market due to fewer jeonse properties and declining occupants

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Dong-gyu = Will the real estate market, which remained unstable despite the government’s successive high-intensity regulations this year, find stability next year?
In the market, house prices will not easily decline next year, but the outlook is that it will be more limited than this year.
The jeonse market is also expected to continue to rise due to the lack of occupancy. There is great concern that the unrest in the cheonsei market will stimulate the rise in house prices.

◇ “The rise in house prices is limited… pay attention to the sale of multi-homed people”
The Korea Institute of Construction Policy and Construction (Keon Jeong-yeon) predicted that the nationwide home sales price would increase by 2% next year. This is significantly lower than the 6% increase rate this year, which Kun Jeong-yeon estimated.
Geum Jeong-yeon analyzes that the price increase will be more limited than this year as house prices have already risen significantly this year, and the demand for housing purchases will decrease next year and the price increase power weakens due to government supply plans.
However, in the process of promoting the 3rd new city and the GTX project, it is estimated that 32 trillion won in compensation will be released, and there is a risk of stimulating the real estate market until next year and next year, according to Geon Jeong-yeon.
There is still concern that there is a possibility of supporting real estate prices as the trend of low interest rates continues and liquidity released on the market to respond to Corona 19 is driven to the asset market.
Kim Gyeong-gyu, head of the Korea Investment & Securities Institute for Asset Succession, predicted, “Next year, the real estate market is likely to become a last-minute bullish market where the volume of transactions will decrease while the house price does not fall easily.”

The amount of property avoiding property tax is also considered as a variable that will determine the direction of house prices next year.
The government has greatly increased the tax burden for multi-homeowners through the December 16 measures last year, the June 17 measures this year, and the July 10 measures.
To avoid this, the market’s prospect and the government’s expectation that a large number of multi-homed sales could come out during the capital gains tax and by the first half of next year when the grace period ends.
In this atmosphere, as the preference for the so-called ‘to be smart’ continues, it is expected that sales will come out from the outskirts of Seoul and the metropolitan area, which will act as pressure to lower house prices.
Real Estate 114 Senior Researcher Lim Byung-cheol predicted that “the effect on the decline in house prices will vary depending on the quantity of goods in the market and the ability to digest them in the market,” and “there is still the demand for entry into Seoul, so there is a possibility that the sale will be digested immediately.” .
The economic recovery and interest rate normalization following the development of the Corona 19 vaccine, the change of the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the possibility of additional measures, and the results of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election in April next year are also considered as variables that will affect the overall real estate market.

◇ “More worries about the jeonse market…Influences such as contract renewal, subscription waiting, decrease in occupancy”
The prevailing prospect is that the jeonse market, which has rapidly become unstable since the second half of this year, will not easily calm down next year.
As the number of tenants sitting down on the existing house using the right to apply for renewal of contracts guaranteed by the new lease law, the number of rented houses that are released to the market is greatly reduced, and the demand for apartments that have become’lotto’ stays in the rental market, so the shortage of rent will not be easily resolved. Is.
In the 11/19 cheonsei countermeasures, the government unveiled a large-scale supply plan and announced that it would supply public leases as quickly as possible, but there is also a prospect that the effect of the measures will be insignificant because it is difficult to supply the desired type of housing in the desired area.
The decrease in the number of occupants next year is also a factor of concern.

According to the Real Estate 114 survey, the number of apartment occupants nationwide next year is 265,000,594 households, down 26.5% (95,726 households) from this year.
Seoul is expected to be cut in half by 44.7% (21,818 households) from this year to 26,940 households, and Gyeonggi-do is expected to be only 101,711 households, a 22.1% decrease from this year.
“The jeonse market is inelastic, so the price will inevitably rise in the future,” said Ham Young-jin, head of Jikbang’s Big Data Lab. “The jeonse crisis centered on apartments will continue until at least next year.”
Experts analyze that if the jeonse market is not stable, it is difficult to seek stability in the trading market.
Park Won-gap, a senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, “There is a saying to ask the jeonse market about the price of the house next year. If the jeonse price is not stable, the rise in the house price is difficult to calm down.”
Senior Expert Park predicted, “If demand for avoidance of cheonsei breakdown turns to the purchase of mid-to-low-priced apartments, the trading market, which had been sharply reduced due to regulatory effects, will resurrect, and the market with an advantage in selling will be formed, and house prices are likely to rise again.”
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