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That’s why nobody wants the Chargers in the playoffs

The last day of the regular season is coming up and should the Indianapolis Colts not put down a mega-choke in Jacksonville, there will only be one free place in the AFC playoff race. Whoever snaps the seventh and last spot will be determined in a real final between the LA Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders on the night from Sunday to Monday – drama is inevitable. In our spotlight for week 18, we’ll tell you why the majority of the AFC would probably prefer to see the Raiders in the postseason.

The NFL could hardly have wished for a better final for their first season with 18 games: An old rivalry decides what will probably be the final playoff spot in the AFC, when the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders for the second time on Sunday evening Year clash. These are the most likely scenarios of what the sixth and seventh seeds in the conference will look like:

  • Colts and Chargers win: In this scenario, the Colts take the 6th placeth Seed and the duel with the Bengals, the Chargers would be 7thth Seed will meet the Chiefs for the third time this year. The raiders would be out.
  • Colts and Raiders win: In this case, the Raiders get the 6th Seed and play in Cincinnati, the Colts hit 7thth Seed on the chiefs. The Chargers would be out.

Now there are definitely other scenarios in which the Colts lose to the Jaguars and the Ravens and Steelers still have a chance of the postseason – colleague Moritz Wollert already listed all the possibilities yesterday. The Colts are favored by the bookmakers in Vegas with 15 points and the Jaguars have just received a 10:50 swat from the Patriots.

So the chances are good that the Colts will do their part early Sunday evening and secure the penultimate playoff spot. Then the duel between Los Angeles and Las Vegas would be about the last postseason spot – certainly also the reason why the NFL unceremoniously flexed the game to Sunday Night Football. In addition to Chargers and Raiders fans, many supporters from other teams will be sitting in front of the TV on Sunday evening – and hope that Derek Carr and Co. will trip the Chargers. Then:

No AFC team wants to see the Chargers in the NFL playoffs

The Chargers are one of the biggest grab bags this season. Rookie coach Brandon Staley’s team beat the Chiefs in an overtime thriller on Thursday Night Football, only to lose in double digits to the 3:11 Texans shortly afterwards. The Bolts succeeded too seldom in bringing constancy to their services. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), only the Cincinnati Bengals had a higher standard deviation from their average EPA value week after week (Expected Points Added) per turn as the Chargers.

Still, LA is one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC. The reason is easy to explain: Justin Herbert. Herbert already had seven games with a PFF grade over 80 in 2021 and got the record for the most touchdowns of a Chargers quarterback in one season from Philip Rivers, but also showed against the Patriots and Ravens, among others, that he still had very bad games has. Nevertheless: Over the last few weeks Herbert has at least got some consistency in his game, in three of his last five games his EPA per play were above the season average.

Herbert is strongest in Third Down, the “money” down in the NFL. Only Kyler Murray has more EPA per play on the third try than the 23-year-old. That was already the case last year, which led many data analysts to believe that Herbert would show clear signs of regression here. That didn’t happen because Herbert is a one-of-a-kind quarterback. And that’s despite the fact that the Chargers receivers have the fifth highest drop rate in the league this year (33 drops). Herbert is the exception to the rule.

Rush defense as an Achilles heel in the playoffs?

While the Chargers Offense can keep up with any team on good days thanks to Herbert, the Defense has been the problem child of the Bolts all year round. Despite all the (justified) praise Staley received for his aggressive and analytical decisions on fourth attempts of the season, Staley’s hobbyhorse is this Chargers team’s greatest weakness. Run defense in particular was on a historically bad path at the beginning of the year. Staley has now taken countermeasures by pitting more defenders in early downs.

This in turn is at the expense of defending the pass, although the intermittent failures of star safety Derwin James and cornerback Michael Davis certainly did not help. With a playoff field with stars like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and the formidable Joe Burrow as well as strong running teams like Indianapolis, Tennessee and New England, it will be difficult for the Chargers to start a playoff run if Herbert is not at the highest level plays.

The last appearance of the Defense against the Broncos was promising, but with all due respect the Broncos are not the yardstick, especially without starters like Jerry Jeudy, Teddy Bridgewater and Tackle Bobby Massie. The game against the Chiefs three weeks ago when Los Angeles managed 25 pressures – more than twice as many as in the two games combined since then – gave more hope. The Chargers desperately need the pressure up front to compete with high-scoring teams like Kansas City and Buffalo.

Can the Raiders stop Justin Herbert?

Initially, the focus of the Chargers is fully on the Raiders, who also still have their fate in their own hands and reach the playoffs with a win. At the first meeting of the two teams at Monday Night Football in week 4, the Chargers were already leading 21-0 at halftime, and at the end of the day the Bolts had a 28-14 win. Herbert had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 222 yards and three touchdowns without interception.

Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley and the Raiders Defense will try to prevent something similar. The question is: Will Bradley deviate from his typical cover 3 concepts, against which Herbert has a PPF grade of almost 82 this year? Bradley waived a defensive scheme change against the Chiefs, Mahomes made the Raiders pay twice. Herbert would also be happy about a good dose of Cover 3 on Sunday evening. The rest of the AFC arguably less so.

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