The long-time director of ZAMG is addressing what has recently shaped reporting in many countries around the world: the accumulation of extreme weather events, with sometimes massive effects on the regions and people affected.
The native Tyrolean, who studied meteorology at the University of Innsbruck and whose professional career recently took him to Vienna, is not concerned with scary media, but with serious clarification about the causes and consequences of global warming – and with meaningful and timely information the population. We have the scientist who recently worked with Dr. Andreas Schaffhauser (prov. Director of ZAMG) and Federal Minister Dr. Heinz Faßmann presented a new warning tool, asked for an interview.
Photo: © Federal Environment Agency / B. Gröger
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Dr. Staudinger, terrifying weather events Extent have lately much suffering and destruction over brought innumerable people. What are we experiencing right now? Has that been the one of science for a long time? predicted climate change?
The extreme temperatures, precipitation and freak weather conditions in Canada, the USA, China and parts of Europe, to name just a few examples, are extreme weather events. A causal connection is difficult to establish directly in the case of some individual disasters, but the unusual accumulation as an indicator leaves little doubt that these are the first signs of profound climate change.
Now, as a look back shows, the climate in the Changed over and over again in the course of human history, just think, for example, of the “Little Ice Age” (15th to mid 19th century). What is different today
It is true that there have been climate changes again and again. We know little about the exact effects of many of them and some, such as the aforementioned “Little Ice Age”, which was regionally and temporally different and was only a cooler phase globally in the core period from the end of the 16th century to the last third of the 17th century For a long time they were only footnotes in historiography. The difference between these and many other climatic variations compared to the present is the speed with which change is proceeding today. In a nutshell, this means: It has never been as fast as it is now!
What causes global warming, of which science have been warning you for a long time?
The fact that global warming, which is currently increasing so rapidly, is mainly caused by humans, is nothing new. Already in the late 1980s, the first warnings from scientists made headlines. The unchecked burning of fossil fuels has significantly increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, especially in the past 20 to 30 years, and has literally “heated up” it. On earth, this has an effect in the form of a continuous rise in average temperatures. Related to this are the melting of the poles and glaciers, long periods of drought and forest fires, to name just a few examples. The substantial increase in energy in the atmosphere makes it more dynamic and aggressive. The more energy there is, the more intense heavy precipitation, hail, etc. are. In addition, the weather-controlling air flows, called jet streams, change. These are largely driven by the temperature differences between the equator and the poles. But after the polar regions warm up faster than the areas near the equator, the so-called westerly wind drift becomes weaker. The result is that weather conditions generally last longer and phenomena such as the heat dome over Canada most recently become possible.
Are heat domes realistic anywhere in the world? Could will these also affect Austria in the future?
The phenomenon that “blocking” weather conditions persist in this intensity over certain regions is not a new one and is basically possible everywhere. So far, however, such pronounced “heat domes” as those over Canada have been rather rare. What is different now is the expected increasing accumulation and longer duration. Regardless of this, the number of hot days in Austria has more than doubled in the past three decades – and it is likely to continue to rise rapidly, with significant effects on agriculture and the health of many people.
What about tornadoes?
The last, devastating tornado in Austria is documented for the year 1916 in Wiener Neustadt. It would be dubious to claim that we will have to reckon with tornadoes here too in the next two or three years. However, as climate change progresses, the likelihood of this increases.
Im Film „The day after tomorrow“ von Roland Emmerich is made in Hollywood fashion, but vividly in front of your eyes led what happens when certain factors in the world Tilt climate change. How far are we today still removed from possible tipping points?
It has often been discussed whether, in principle, a galloping greenhouse effect can be set in motion that can no longer be stopped. This is possible, yes – and there are already some tipping points that we are approaching critically.
In the Paris climate agreement, the international International community agreed to reduce global warming to well below two degrees, if possible to 1.5 degrees limit. Can this goal still be achieved?
The problem I see here is that in connection with climate goals in general there is always talk of periods up to 2030 and 2050 and it is rarely said what is to be done today and what now. In other words, we all, whether politicians or large parts of the population, “cheat” ourselves over it. Achieving the 1.5 degree target would be immensely important, but it becomes more unrealistic from year to year.
Can countries or regions of the world be named, which are particularly hard hit by climate change will be?
If we think of island states in the Pacific, for example, they, like many other coastal regions around the world, will more than clearly feel the consequences of climate change – and I’m not just talking about stronger and more frequent storm scenarios. Rising sea levels will be a major challenge. Worldwide, this has increased by 15 centimeters in the 20th century, i.e. around 1.5 millimeters per year. In the meantime, however, the level is rising more than twice as fast – and the speed is increasing. Even if greenhouse emissions were greatly reduced and global warming could be limited to below two degrees, the sea level would rise by up to 60 centimeters by 2100. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, more than a meter can be expected. Some experts even speak of up to two meters. That means “land under” for many islands. Heavy precipitation like in the last few weeks will become much more frequent in Europe. Drought around the Mediterranean is another problem, and widespread forest fires are already having devastating effects.
What should alpine regions such as Tyrol prepare for?
Here, too, the relevant catchphrase is “the frequency”. Snowy winters like those in East Tyrol in 2020/2021 have already existed in earlier times, now these are likely to occur more and more often in the high altitudes. The same applies to individual heavy rain events that trigger floods, mudslides, landslides and the like. It will be all the more important to continuously evaluate the measures of flood protection and torrent and avalanche barriers and to accelerate them accordingly. However, one should expect that the constructions will become more complex and also affect avalanches and mudslides, which one may not even have in view today. Another relevant topic, especially for a tourist region like the Lienz district, is the safety of high-altitude trails. With the “softening” of the permafrost at altitudes above 2,400 meters, the risk of falling rocks and / or rock falls increases. The other extreme are longer dry spells in the warm season. Especially in the summer months, when the humidity is no longer sufficient, this can become a huge problem for agriculture.
How important will it be in the future to protect people from extreme events to warn in time? What does it have in this regard with the new “warning tool” that was released on July 23rd was presented?
A targeted and, above all, timely warning will be of enormous importance in the future. On the positive side, the accuracy of weather forecasts has steadily improved over the past few years. A five-day forecast is as precise today as the weather forecast for the next day in 1980. A forecast for up to ten days is now possible. This enables authorities to prepare better for extreme weather, for example. The mentioned “warning tool” developed by ZAMG meteorologists goes one step further: It focuses on the consequences and possible dangers to be expected from weather events. It is no longer just a matter of bare figures, such as amounts of precipitation, wind speeds or maximum temperatures, but rather so-called “impact-oriented weather warnings”. An amount of precipitation of 200 millimeters in 24 hours is probably an abstract quantity for most citizens. For the safety of individuals in endangered areas, however, it is essential to know whether I have to leave the house and how much time I have left.
What role plays in the development of weather models the cross-border cooperation?
Working together and exchanging information with colleagues in neighboring countries is extremely important. Let me explain this using the example of Italy: Without their data, an exact forecast for the Lienz district would not be possible. I would like to mention the platform www.meteoalarm.eu in this regard. This network of European weather services currently includes 37 partner countries, the coordination and administration is carried out by the ZAMG in Austria and the KNMI in the Netherlands.
There is, given the unpleasant forecasts for the future, also positive aspects and the hope, that subsequent generations do not share the mistakes of ours Have to pay for time?
Yes there is! Let’s just think of the change in awareness among young people, of technical innovations with regard to e-vehicles, geothermal energy, CO2 reduction measures or facades made of photovoltaic panels, which are being tinkered with worldwide. Not to be forgotten is the trend towards circular economy, car sharing or the expansion of local public transport, to name just three more of many examples. If we take advantage of all these possibilities and if we succeed in promoting the change in awareness in the population, we might, to put it casually, “just scratch the curve”.
Interview: Elisabeth Hilgartner, Photos: AdobeStock
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