In a recent interview, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba talks about a conversation with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
– He assured me that China is not interested in this war. They are ready to seek peaceful solutions to the war through diplomacy, Kuleba says CNN.
Ukraine urged China to take advantage of its good relations with Russia.
“I asked the Chinese Foreign Minister to use his influence over Putin and his relationship with Russia, and I asked him to stop the war immediately,” he said.
No other country in the world has as strong a bond with Russia as China. Nevertheless, the Norwegian expert believes that this is not a real step in the direction of a peace agreement.
– They have an influence on Putin and Russia, but it has its limitations, says Professor Øystein Tunsjø at the Institute for Defense Studies.
He points to several reasons why the Chinese are now distancing themselves from Russia.
– REQUESTS HELP: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asks China to use its influence over Russia. Photographed here during a UN meeting last week. Photo: Carlo Allegri / Reuters
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Can be an important piece
Despite Western sanctions and condemnation, several of the experts TV 2 has spoken to in the past week believe that it is unlikely that Putin will stop the invasion before he has achieved military results.
– UKRAINE: Tom Røseth is an associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College. Photo: The Armed Forces
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Among them is Tom Røseth. He is an associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College. He is also the leader of the Ukraine program.
Although it takes a lot to tip Putin off the stick, Røseth believes that China can become an important piece.
– They have gone from encouraging Russia to demand security in Europe, to asking them to move to a more diplomatic track now after the invasion. If anyone can influence Putin, it is Xi Jinping, he says.
If Russia is to withdraw from Ukraine, Røseth believes there must be further pressure from China.
– They must also get an exit where some Russian considerations will be seen as good. Otherwise, they run the operation fully.
– CONVERSATIONS: Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China in early February. Photo: Sputnik / Aleksey Druzhinin / Kremlin / Reuters
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Was scared
Professor Øystein Tunsjø also believes that there has been a change in how China relates to Russia.
– The phone call illustrates how the Chinese are trying to distance themselves a little from Russia. At the same time, they are not willing to distance themselves completely. They still support Russia in the UN Security Council and other contexts, Tunsjø says.
He justifies his desire for distance with several things, including the powerful and collective response from the West.
– CHINA expert: Øystein Tunsjø at the Department of Defense Studies. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– The Chinese have got cold feet. They did not believe that the West would gather around sanctions, weapons contributions, armaments and an almost diplomatic boycott after the invasion. When they saw that it was almost a united, western block, they try to maneuver to a more neutral position, he says.
Not because they do not want to support Russia, but because they have to be careful when they see the response from the West.
Also, too much is at stake at home.
– DURING THE OLYMPICS: Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Photo: Sputnik / Aleksey Druzhinin / Kremlin / Reuters
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Was taken to bed
One does not have to rewind far to find pictorial evidence of the close relationship between the Chinese and the Russian leader.
– One thing is to put your arm around Putin in February. By then, Putin had recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as breakaway republics, but it was still not a full-scale invasion. They were closer than ever and there were no limits to how close the collaboration was.
When the war became a fact, the Chinese were taken to bed.
6,000 Chinese were in Ukraine when the attack began. Like citizens from other western countries, the Chinese did not manage to evacuate.
– China is very concerned about their security. It is important for them to ensure the security of their own citizens and therefore they distance themselves from Russia, he says.
– EVACUATION: The sudden arrival of the war on China is one of the clearest signs of the country’s limited influence during the war. Here people are trying to evacuate by train out of Kyiv. Photo: Gleb Garanich / Reuters
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Tunsjø draws a scenario where ten Chinese students have been killed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Then the visible support for Russia will trigger an enormous rage at home among the people of China.
– This is a difficult balancing act for them. They distance themselves, but also do not want to completely let go of relations with Russia.
He believes the real question is whether China has the opportunity to be a mediator during negotiations between the parties and facilitate diplomacy.
– When Russia is faced with economic sanctions, they have to lean a lot on China. It gives China a unique room for maneuver, says Tunsjø.
– CONFERENCE: Leaders toast ahead of CICA conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, June 2019. Photo: Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik / Kremlin Pool / AP
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Therefore, China is best suited
According to Tunsjø, the bond between Russia and China has become significantly stronger in the last 20 years.
– This is what China has succeeded best with in its foreign policy: A close and close bond with Russia, he says.
In addition, China is in a special position in that it also has a good relationship with Ukraine.
– There are not many other countries that can be peacemakers. They are not as powerful and do not have as much influence. China is well positioned to influence both players, says Tunsjø.
Although China is well positioned, he does not think it is likely that China will do anything about developments on the ground.
– ATTACK: The fire brigade is working to get control of a fire after an attack in Kyiv. As Russia escalates the war, China does not want Chinese in Ukraine to be affected. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP
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Too great a distance
– If you are to hold peace talks, you must be able to agree on something. As the situation is now, there is nothing to agree on, he says.
He points out that the Ukrainians still show great will to fight, and that the Russians have still not achieved military goals.
– Putin will not pull out with his tail between his legs, while Russia is collapsing under Western sanctions, without having achieved anything military. Even if the big cities fall, there is also no sign that the Ukrainians will give up, who get weapons and financial support, he says.
His conclusion is that the war can last a long time before the talks can take place.
He believes that the war must reach a point where both achieve something, for example by dividing the country in two. Russia gains control of the capital Kyiv and eastern Ukraine, while other parts of Ukraine can still be independent.
– It is only when we get to the stage that the room for maneuver of China will increase, but it will take time.
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