Thaioil predicts pricingWest Texas Crude OilThis week it will move in the range of USD 69-81 per barrel.Brentmoving in a range of 73-85 dollars a barrel.
Crude oil price trend (19 – 23 Dec. ’22)
Crude Oil Prices Recover As Epidemic Situation In China Tends To Improve After China Has Started Easing Strict Measures In Many Areas. With the result of supporting economic activities and global oil demand. The December 2022 EIA forecasts that global oil demand is likely to increase compared to the previous year. After that, demand in China is likely to start recovering from the epidemic. While the market keeps an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to limit the price cap of Russian crude oil from December 5, 2022 onwards.
Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week
– STREET The December 65 report forecasts global oil demand at an average of 100.83 million barrels, down from the April forecast. 65 to 101.74 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of the economy tending to go into recession. from the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes to slowing inflation and China’s Zero-COVID policy used to continually control the epidemic. However, global oil demand is likely to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day compared to the previous year. Demand in Asia is expected to fully recover from the outbreak. and demand in China which has started to recover If China eases tougher measures
– United States Federal Reserve (POWERED) resolved to raise interest rates by 0.5% to 4.25 – 4.50% in its December 13-14 session after the consumer price index (PCI) in the United States in November 2022 fell to 7.1% from 7.7% the previous month. Still at a high level, forcing the Fed to keep raising interest rates to slow down inflation. The market expects the US interest rate to likely rise to 5.1% in 2023, causing the market to remain concerned about the recession. pressure on global oil demand
– China announcementretail numbersNovember 2022 contracted 5.9% YoY, more than market expectations of a 4.0% YoY contraction. 65 increased by only 2.2% YoY, lower than 5.0% YoY in the previous month due to the situation of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in China, where China has taken strict measures to contain the spread in the past. Affecting economic activities in the country, however, China has begun to ease measures to control COVID-19. In multiple areas, the market expects an improvement in the economy and demand for oil in the country.
– market concernssupply of crude oilTightening After Keystone Crude Pipeline From Canada To U.S. Back To Work Since ceasing operations Dec. 7, 2022 due to a crude oil spill of more than 14,000 barrels, this is the largest U.S. crude spill in a decade.
– The market continues to keep an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to cap the price of Russian crude oil to $60 a barrel from 5 December 2022, it will cease providing shipping and ship insurance services for Russian crude oil if the price cap conditions are not met, however Crude oil ESPO Russian exports to China continued to trade above the ceiling whileUrals grade crude oil It was trading at around $41.60 a barrel. which is still lower than the maximum price set by Europe
– The economy to watch this week is the number. Q3/65 GDP The market was expecting growth of 2.9% quarterly, recovering from the previous quarter’s decline of -0.6% quarterly and the European consumer confidence index for December. 65
Summary of the oil price situation in the last week (12 Dec. – 16 Dec. ’22)
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.12 to $74.09 a barrel last week, while Brent crude climbed $1.05 to $79.04 a barrel. Dubai crude averaged $76.54 a barrel after the Keystone crude spill. Causing disruption of operations in the past Causing the market to worry about the low supply of crude oil, while the FED decided to raise interest rates to 0.5% in its meeting on Dec. 13-14 ’22, as expected by the market. For the week ending December 9, 2022, U.S. stocks rose 10.2 million barrels, defying analyst expectations for a decline of 3.6 million barrels.
