Mr. Tada Pruthitada Managing Director Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) revealed that the trend in the 64th year the association expects to have the amount of private debt securities or debentures, approximately 700,000-750,000 million baht, or an increase from the previous year, issued a total of 683,559 million baht. Redemption and will have to issue new debentures to compensate for older debentures (rollover) of more than 730 billion baht.
However, there may be some parts that turn to borrowing from financial institutions instead because the interest rate of commercial bank loans is cheaper than issuing debentures after credit spread has risen.
For the spread of the COVID-19 virus The new wave is expected to affect the Thai bond market not as much as the previous one. Because the city closure area is limited But there may be some businesses that are still fragile, such as travel groups, etc. The risk of default on debt is expected to occur less. As in the past, 12 companies that have problems in the Hyild Bond Group have requested to extend their debt. It is believed that some will return to the financial institution to borrow money to pay off the debt. Or some groups that are heavily affected May request for further debt extension With continued monitoring of the situation closely
In terms of policy interest rates this year The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 0.50% throughout the year in order to take care of the economic conditions that need time to recover. At the same time, the interest cut will not help the economy recover. Since there is still a lot of money in the system. But the problem lies in the lack of access to funding. It is recommended that the government sector use additional monetary policy tools to assist in this area.
The short-term and medium-term government bond yields had a limited upside. Due to the liquidity in the system is still high. And long-term government bond yields are expected to gradually move up from the economic recovery.
While the trend of capital flows from foreign investors Looks that this year will not flow into the Thai bond market much. Because the US bond yield (Bond Yield) rebounded, resulting in a narrowing of the interest spread between Thai and US bonds. Pressuring foreign investment funds (Fund Flow) to flow back in this difficult period. This can be reflected from the beginning of the year to the present (4-13 Jan ’64) found that foreign fund flow has already flowed more than 6,800 million baht and during the year 63, foreign fund flow has a sales status. Net approximately 64,025 million baht
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