Thai Baht Outlook: Krungsri Predicts Range-Bound Trading Amid Global Economic Concerns and Domestic Uncertainty

Stock Dimension – Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited There are views on the direction of the baht this week that The baht this week tends to move in a range. 33.50-34.20 baht/dollar compared to last week The baht closed appreciably at 33.97. baht/dollar after trading in the range of 33.58-34.02 baht/dollar, with the baht hitting the highest level in three months, with the dollar appreciating against all major currencies last week. As the market grows more concerned about the global economic outlook Expectations that the US will stop raising interest rates have been largely reflected, with the April US consumer price index (CPI) rising below 5% for the first time in two years. The core CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose 5.5 percent, slowing from 5.6 percent in March. Important for the Fed chair also decreased from the previous month. The US policy rate futures contract indicates a greater than 80% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates at its June 13-14 meeting. However, inflation is still far from the Fed’s 2% target and the Fed delivered. A sign that there is no need to rush policy easing, which contradicts market views that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. However, foreign investors sold Thai stocks net 4,673 million baht, but bought bonds as much as 36,853 million baht.

for an overview this week. Global Markets Group Krungsri said investors will follow US retail sales and Chinese economic data. Progress on raising the debt ceiling, which we expect the US authorities may solve immediately by extending the time for about 3-4 months, including the Fed chairman’s speech at the end of the week. at the same time The momentum of economic growth outside the United States is showing signs of waning. This was reflected in the decline in prices of industrial commodities such as copper. We view dollar selling pressure from current levels likely to be limited until new US economic data indicates a more severe slowdown.

for domestic factors 1Q23 GDP grew 2.7% compared to the same period last year. which is higher than the market expected The NESDB still estimates that the Thai economy will grow by 2.7-3.7% this year, while we view the clarity of the election results as a short-term positive sentiment on the baht and capital flows. It is highly uncertain and can affect sentiment and increase market volatility.

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