Researcher: Putin could talk about an existential war for Russian survival in his speech
LETA: Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his upcoming speech today, could emphasize that the war in Ukraine is an existential war for the survival of Russians, this is the opinion expressed by Mārcis Balodis, a researcher at the Center for Eastern European Policy Research, to the LETA agency.
Although currently Putin’s own regime meets all the characteristics of Nazism, he tries to blame it on others, including Latvia.
Screenshot from Telegram
According to the researcher, Putin’s main message could be aimed at a domestic audience in Russia. Almost a year has passed since the invasion, but Russia’s strategic goals have not been achieved. They have failed, so Putin may be looking at ways to change how the public perceives the war.
In Balož’s view, the Russian president could also introduce the idea that Russia is at war not against Ukraine, but against NATO and the West, not only in a military battle, but also politically and economically. Also, the narrative could be heard that Russia is the real victim in everything that is happening, while noting that it gets everything and succeeds.
“Putin will try to turn everything that is happening upside down in order to demonstrate Russia as capable of survival, and the Russian president himself as a capable and good leader. The main purpose will be to mobilize society and to achieve, as a minimum, the acceptance of the Russian population or the non-expression of widespread dissatisfaction,” said Balodis.
The researcher of the Eastern European Policy Research Center noted that Putin will definitely focus on the course of the war, try to “draw” some kind of victories and achievements, successes, but they will be imaginary, because there are no significant benefits for Russia at the strategic level.
Asked if Putin could announce mobilization, Balodis stated that such a possibility cannot be ruled out. The researcher emphasized that the Kremlin is in a difficult situation, as it is clearly aware that the so-called first wave of mobilization was not easy and caused problems even in loyal regional entities such as Chechnya.
According to the researcher, the Kremlin understands that domestically, at best, this is an irritation, at worst, it can create a threat, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of people who left Russia to avoid mobilization.
“Declaring or not announcing mobilization will be dictated by what is happening at the front – Russia’s success during the battle and its goals. If Russia decides to launch major attacks on large areas where manpower is needed in large quantities, the likelihood of mobilization increases. Since the end of January, Russia has been trying to carry out an attack in the direction of Donbass. Movement and progress are slow. The argument for good or bad for mobilization will be determined by the situation on the ground and the political settings of the country, from which the actions of the armed forces will follow,” explained Balodis.
