TEXT LIVE. “Stay on line!” US presidential candidates Trump and Harris encourage people to go to the polls and not leave the long lines at the polling stations

Latvian from USA: “Election day is here: some notes from California”

“Election day is here: some notes from California”, writes Latvia, former member of the Saeima Gatis Eglītis from the USA on the social network “X” on November 5, expressing the views about the election battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Eglitis writes on the social network:

“1. This election is the “closest” since 2000; Republicans were ahead when K. Harris replaced J. Biden, but the positions have decreased in the last month.

2. Historically, a Democratic candidate would need at least a 3 percentage point (pp) advantage over the Republican (popular vote) in the primary to win the election with 270+ Electoral College votes , but this time this “law”. may not work. There is a big chance that women’s votes will play for K. Harris. Since the days of JFK, it has even been said that women voters are the backbone of the Democratic Party. For example, ~70% of African-American women support Harris, only ~15% support Trump.

3. In the previous postal vote, the women/men ratio is 54/46: women support K. Harris by a 9 pp advantage, men support D. Trump by an advantage 8 pp.

4. It seems that in recent weeks, a large number of uncertain people have turned away from K. Harris, so that she refuses to give clear, reasonable answers to questions in interviews. Many undecideds also dislike the Democrats’ aggressive approach to Trump, JD Vance, calling them fascists, crazy, etc.

5. A poll done a few days ago asked who will win the presidential election? 44% answered D. Trump, 41% K. Harris, 16% answered they don’t know. Top issues for Americans: economy/cost of living (42%) and immigration (19%).

6. When can we expect the first results? At midnight Latvia, polling stations will be closed in SUN BELT states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, where good results are expected for D.Trump (also a lot of Mexican support for him). But the big concern is about the BLUE WALL states: so far in Wisconsin and Michigan, K. Harris has an advantage of 1-1.2 pp, and in Pennsylvania D. Trump is ahead with a small advantage of 0.5 pp. In voting by mail (about 20% of all votes), K. Harris has a big advantage in Pennsylvania, but ~66% of voters will cast their ballot on election day, and advantage D. Trump creates there. An interesting question in Pennsylvania is how the 80,000 Amish community will vote. In Michigan, both candidates have the same 49.4% rating.

7. ~38% of Americans believe that elections in America are not fair, especially in California, where ID is not required to vote. There is a risk that supporters of the loser may not take the election results lightly.

8. The issue of banning abortion is a big “anchor” for the Republicans in the last two years, so the Republicans removed it from their election manifesto this summer. This makes it possible to attract new supporters: for example, California Senator G. Romero recently switched from the ruling party of the state, the Democrats, to the Republicans (for the first time in 80 years), until that was blocked by the Republicans’ stance against him. abortion

9. If D. Trump loses the election, the question will certainly arise whether it was a big mistake to agree to the CNN debate in Atlanta with J. Biden before the Chicago Democratic Convention approved him as a candidate – sitting J. Biden’s failure in the CNN debate gave the Democratic leadership a legitimate reason to remove “JBiden, who himself was a much more capable opponent for D. Trump than K. Harris.

10. Be that as it may: the result is so close that the election will be won by the party that will be able to mobilize its supporters more successfully by voting through mail or on election day.”

Election Day is here: some notes from California🇺🇸

1. These elections are the “closest” since 2000; Republicans were ahead when K. Harris replaced J. Biden, but the positions have decreased in the last month.

2. Historically, the Democratic candidate in the primaries… pic.twitter.com/7df9DMRca9

— Gatis Eglītis (@EglitisGatis) November 5, 2024