In terms of deliveries, the first quarter of 2020 could or should have been one of Tesla’s best so far or even the best: For 2020 as a whole, Tesla has at least 500,000 deliveries of Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model Y (and probably a few Semi) forecast, mathematically 125,000 per quarter, which is 13,000 more than in the previous record quarter 4/2019. By February or even early March, Tesla seemed to have a good chance of doing that – but since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, the question is really just how bad the 2020 start will be.
Tesla numbers expected this week
Tesla should release figures on deliveries before this weekend; They are usually announced shortly after the end of the quarter. There is already a lot of speculation among financial professionals and elsewhere. Tesla does not make quarterly forecasts, so they cannot be missed or exceeded – only in the last quarter can it be calculated how many electric cars Tesla would have to deliver in order to meet its annual forecast.
According to a Reuters report, the entire US auto industry lost half of March due to the corona virus. This of course means the second half of the month, in which the crisis came to a head. This would have been particularly important for Tesla, because there is still a disproportionate share of all deliveries in the last days of each quarter. In Germany, Tesla employees do their utmost to deliver cars ordered with protective measures and some of them free of charge to their customers before the end of March, and it shouldn’t be any different anywhere else.
Back to 2019 level?
A new record is not expected in the first quarter of 2020. According to TheStreet.com, analysts expect an average of 97,000 deliveries, Reuters reports 93,000 Teslas as a consensus, although some of the estimates have not yet been adjusted. Adam Stanley from Morgan Stanley is currently reducing its deliveries to 88,000 in the first quarter. With this value, Tesla would fall back to the level of the second quarter of 2019, but would still be above the first quarter in which there had been a drop to 63,000.
It already seems clear that the second quarter of 2020 will still be shaped by the corona crisis. For the time being, Tesla had to switch its factories in Fremont and Buffalo to emergency operation, and the battery gigafactory with Panasonic in Nevada should also have 75 percent fewer staff. Sales and deliveries are currently also severely affected in the West.
China used to be a bright spot for Tesla
However, China is an early ray of hope. In the Gigafactory there, production has been running again since February. In the end, their capacity is said to have increased to 3000 Model 3 per week, and another huge building is progressing rapidly next to the main building. According to reports, Tesla also wants to use the compulsory breaks in Fremont and Buffalo in order to be able to produce more efficiently later.
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