“Lebanon Debate”
The time has not yet come to formulate any security or political path in the internal arena, but the horizon tends towards a flare-up with escalation options overriding options for calm, as political columnist and analyst Ali Hamada asserts that “we are heading towards escalation, and the expansion of the war in the south between… Israel and Hezbollah,” noting that this war, which is “a war of preoccupation, will increase in complexity and intensity in the next few days, especially with the approach of the final battle in Gaza, which is the Battle of Rafah, which is a pivotal battle because from its results, the fate of Gaza will be determined.” And the fate of the political situation there, as well as the fate of the Hamas movement on the military, security, and political levels.”
In response to a question from “Lebanon Debate” about the next stage, Hamada stressed that “it will determine the image of the Gaza Strip after the military operations and shootings stop,” pointing out that “it is a pivotal stage at a very dangerous juncture in this war, and its repercussions on Lebanon are real and realistic.” Especially with Hezbollah’s insistence on continuing the fighting as long as the fighting in Gaza does not stop, and this matter is not in the party’s hands and the Israelis reject it and will not submit to Hezbollah’s condition.”
As for the French and American delegates, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Amos Hochstein, analyst Hamada reveals, “The former’s engines are stopped, and Hochstein’s engines are suspended, not stopped. Hochstein recently visited Israel and did not visit Lebanon, and this is an indication that he felt that there was no point in visiting Lebanon, as long as the party “God rejects a ceasefire.”
Therefore, Hamada focuses on that “the condition for reactivating the engines of political settlement and political speech is a ceasefire on the part of the party, which insists on shooting and on a war of tensions within the conditions it sees, but things are sliding towards a broader, more dangerous and bloodier war, as we saw during “The last few days in Nabatieh when more than eleven Lebanese civilians were killed.”
While Hamada confirms that the French plan is still on the table, he notes that “Hezbollah rejected it, and therefore it is on hold.”
Regarding the political tracks and the proposed settlements in which the return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri may be a link, Hamada confirms that “Hariri’s return is not final, but rather a visit different from the previous two visits, and this is quite clear regarding the scene of February 14, in addition to the scene of communications, visits and receptions.” In the Center House, and to the words of Prime Minister Hariri and the revelations that came from him and those around him that there is something similar to the management of Hariri’s political engines, regarding the coming year and the approaching date of the parliamentary elections in the year 2026, and therefore the next year will be a pivotal year regarding whether or not Hariri returns.”
As for the politically heated situation, Hamada continues, “Hariri is wary of getting involved in the political tension, because he realizes that within 24 hours he will leave Lebanon and return to Abu Dhabi, but he wanted to send a message that he is still present on the internal political map, in a large and fundamental way.” “.
2024-02-18 05:16:13
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