/ world today news/ For the first time since the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, paid an official visit to it. The previous visit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to this country took place in September 2010. It is no secret that Iran is one of the main allies of the Assad government.
The timing of the Iranian-Syrian talks in Damascus was not chosen by chance. Against the background of a noticeable weakening of US influence in the Middle East, there is a normalization of relations between regional power centers, in particular between Turkey and Israel, between Arab countries and Israel, and between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The issue of resolving the protracted large-scale Syrian conflict is again on the agenda. Attempts are being made to extend the legitimacy of Assad’s ruling government in Damascus to bring Syria out of isolation and lift restrictive sanctions against it.
Tehran paid close attention to the initiative of a number of Arab states to explore the possibility of restoring bilateral relations with the SAR and returning the country to the League of Arab States (LAD). It is said that this will be discussed at the organization’s next high-level meeting in the Saudi capital Riyadh on May 19, 2023. So far, only Qatar has strongly opposed the restoration of Syria’s membership in the Arab League, as it supports the Syrian opposition and radical Islamist groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Doha believes that Damascus does not contribute to the process of peaceful settlement of the situation in the country (adopting a new constitution, early parliamentary and presidential elections, creating a coalition government, etc.) and without the implementation of these important points, it is not possible to achieve national reconciliation and to restore the Syrian state.
Iran supports the call by representatives of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Syria. Formally, we are talking about those military units that are in Syria without the approval of the central authorities and accordingly illegally, such as Turkish or American formations. Since Iran and Russia have sent their military to that country at the invitation of Damascus, the Arabs have not focused their attention on their presence.
It should also be borne in mind that Raisi’s visit to Damascus takes place on the eve of the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey, when Erdogan and his opponents among the opposition leaders were forced to include in their campaign programs the issue of normalizing relations with neighboring countries. solving the problem of 3.5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey. At the same time, Tehran, along with Moscow, is also interested in resuming the Astana format of peace talks on Syria.
Thus, the Iranian president’s visit to Syria is seen in Tehran as an important step to preserve Iran’s position in this Arab country. Today, Syria is a key link in the so-called “Shia crescent” (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, with access to the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain). Syria is also for Iran a kind of bridgehead or outpost to support the Palestinian national movement in the general confrontation with Israel and the United States. Iran is steadily increasing its cultural, educational and religious influence in Syria. The aim of Iran’s cultural policy is to promote Shiism as a trend in the country and soften the attitude of Syrians towards the representatives of this faith, which Tehran tries to achieve by introducing elements of its educational program in educational institutions and sponsorship initiatives.
Raisi’s visit to Damascus also shows that Iran is “celebrating the victory of the resistance forces in the fight against terrorism”. In addition, he spoke not only about the help that pro-Iranian armed groups such as the Lebanese “Hezbollah” provide to the Syrians in the fight against the “Islamic State” groups, but also in general about Iran’s support for the government of Bashar Assad. A day before, in his interview with Al Mayadin television channel, Raisi said that “Syria has always been at the axis of resistance” and has resisted, despite “Zionist aggression” and US attempts to “stir discord” in this country. “We unequivocally support all fronts of the axis of resistance, my visit to Syria is within the framework of this support…” he emphasized. As you know, Israel was subjected to rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria a little earlier, and President Raisi’s visit to Syria coincided with Israeli attacks on Iranian military facilities and its allied forces in that country. Thus, an attack was made on the airport in Aleppo and another military airport nearby, where, according to the Syrian opposition, there are warehouses with ammunition and weapons of the Hezbollah movement.
Among the persons accompanying Raisi are the heads of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, the Ministers of Petroleum, Communications, Roads and Urban Development, which confirms the significance and applied nature of this visit. As a result of the talks between Bashar Assad and Ibrahim Raisi, 15 documents were signed, mainly dedicated to trade and economic cooperation. Among them are memorandums of understanding on a plan for long-term strategic comprehensive cooperation, as well as sectoral documents (on agriculture, oil, railways, civil aviation, the banking sector). During the talks, the parties agreed to reset tariffs, activate the project to create a railway corridor between Iran, Iraq and Syria, develop religious tourism, and so on. Raisi confirmed his earlier statement that Iran is ready to take an active part in the post-war reconstruction of Syria, investing in the Arab Republic’s oil fields and refineries.
Observers note that until recently, Iranian aid to Damascus was one-sided and put a heavy burden on the Iranian budget ($8-10 billion a year). At the same time, Iran was betting on tying the Syrian economy to itself as much as possible through loans and the acquisition of liquid assets. In addition, the Iranian country has become the main supplier of food, medicine and various equipment to Syria. In the conditions of civil war, the destroyed industry, agriculture and infrastructure, the Syrian state proved to be practically insolvent. But the emerging prospect of establishing relations between Syria and the Arab countries and Turkey, possible investments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries for the reconstruction of the country can create favorable conditions for construction, oil production in Syria. It is also a suitable market for Iranian goods and services for the future.
It should be borne in mind that Tehran’s plans and intentions to entrench itself in Syria for a long time are akin to solving an equation with many unknowns. Much will be decided in Ankara after the parliamentary and presidential elections in May. Erdogan and his main opponent in the election, Kemal Kulçdaroğlu, have different views on the future of Turkish-Syrian relations and the refugee issue. Turkey’s current president is closely aligned with the Syrian armed opposition and Islamist groups and will be forced to maintain the same course of support for them. Kulçdaroğlu is freer in his actions and can take extraordinary steps to normalize relations with Damascus.
Not everything is so simple in the League of Arab States regarding the legitimization of the Assad government, some Arab leaders put it as a condition for the implementation of the UN road map for Syria (new constitution, elections, coalition government, amnesty for opponents of the regime and others).
Starting the process of rebuilding a country divided into three enclaves is not easy. Damascus controls about two-thirds of the country’s territory, where about half of its pre-war population lives. The Turkish authorities are ready to build up to 200,000 houses in the territories controlled by Ankara in the northwestern and northern parts of Syria and to relocate the families of the refugees from the Turkish camps there. The UAE prefers to invest in the reconstruction of the city of Raqqa and the east bank of the Euphrates River, which is controlled by Kurdish militias and Arab tribes. At the same time, the task of rebuilding the country is very capital-intensive – according to the most conservative estimates, 400 to 500 billion dollars will have to be allocated for these purposes only at the first stage.
It is obvious that the full-scale reconstruction of Syria and the legitimization of its government can take place under the conditions of a peaceful resolution of the Syrian conflict in accordance with the agreements reached in Geneva and Astana between representatives of Assad and the opposition.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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