Date February 4, 2024 Add Article added Download PDF Share
Due to the increasing polarization of the American electorate, fewer and fewer states — and therefore voters — are likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election.
- Since the early 2000s, only a handful of states have been considered truly “competitive” by the main American forecasting institutes.
- In the vast majority of cases, due to the voting method (the majority in a State granting the vote of a determined number of electors), the two parties know – although with a certain margin of error – in advance final results in most states.
This underlying trend is reflected by crucial data highlighted by political scientists Daron R. Shaw, Scott Althaus and Costas Panagopoulos: only 27% of Americans lived in states targeted by the candidates’ campaigns in 2020, compared to 53% twenty years ago. earlier.
So every segment of the voting-age population in the few states that will determine the outcome of November’s presidential election — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — is crucial to each party.
Traditionally, young Americans vote predominantly for Democratic candidates. In the 2022 midterm elections, 63% of 18-29 year olds voted for Democratic Party candidates and 35% for Republican candidates to elect members of the House of Representatives — a figure stable since the beginning of the years 2000.
- In the 2020 presidential election, it was young voters who mainly contributed to Joe Biden’s victory.
- Since then, this support has changed. In December, and for the first time, a reliable poll placed the support of 18-29 year olds at 49% in favor of Donald Trump, 43% for Joe Biden.
- In the swing statesBiden was ahead of Trump by only one percentage point among this age category in a poll released a month earlier.
In the United States, the abstention rate among young people is particularly high. If participation exceeded 50% during the 2020 presidential election – a historically high level and much lower than that of other age groups – the prospect of a new Biden-Trump clash will certainly lead to a drop in participation. the participation of 18-29 year olds in November.
The data suggests that low turnout among young voters would seriously threaten Joe Biden’s chances of winning against Donald Trump in the swing stateswhere 16% of the electorate on average is between 18 and 29 years old (approximately identical to the national average).
To encourage young people to vote for the Democratic candidate – despite his age, his position on the Israel-Hamas war as well as a record on immigration and the fight against climate change perceived as insufficient by a significant part of the 18- 29 years old — Joe Biden’s campaign team is banking on a powerful weapon: Taylor Swift.
- The pop star had timidly announced that she was going to vote for the Democratic ticket in 2020, more in opposition to the candidacy of Donald Trump than in support of Joe Biden.
- Since then, Taylor Swift’s popularity has continued to grow. She has 279 million subscribers on Instagram and was, with 26.1 billion streams, the most listened to artist on the Spotify platform in 2023.
A recent study revealed that 18% of the 1,500 American voters surveyed by Redfield & Wilton would be “likely” or “definitely likely” to vote for the candidate supported by Taylor Swift – a potentially higher share among 18-29 year olds. Another opinion study makes it possible to measure the impact of the singer on the American population: Swift’s public appearance at the American football matches of her new companion, Travis Kelce, directly contributed to the increase in interest by young women for the NFL, which increased from 53% in July to 64% in December 2023.
2024-02-04 20:55:16
#Taylor #Swift #change #presidential #election #Great #Continent
