Came to Brussels to take part in meetings of the Atlantic Alliance, the G7 and the European Union, and then going to PolandUS President Joe Biden has repeatedly affirmed the support that the United States and Western countries intend to bring to Ukraine. On the other hand, in Beijing, the behavior to adopt with regard to Russia is less easy to define. For a month, the Chinese leaders have carefully avoided questioning the entry of the Russian army into Ukraine. But they can only see that nothing seems to be going as Moscow had planned.
When, February 4 in Beijing, Vladimir Putin presented to Xi Jinping the warlike intentions of Russia in Ukraine, it is very likely that he envisaged a quickly victorious offensive. However, the resistance of the Ukrainians considerably blocked the advance of the Russian troops. They are also confronted with all sorts of organizational and supply difficulties which had obviously not been envisaged in Moscow. As a result, the Russian army besieged several cities, the bombardments by its air force were intense, and despite this, it did not really progress.
All this is carefully observed in Beijing. But apparently, from the Chinese point of view, there is no question of abandoning the Russian ally when it is in serious trouble. For China, the priority is no longer, as at the start of the conflict, to balance his point of view between Russia and Ukraine. Three weeks ago, the Chinese position was to regret that this war took place and even to send messages of sympathy to Ukraine.
No matter the cost
From now on, the important thing seems to be to show support for Vladimir Putin’s Russia. From March 7Wang Yi, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that “friendship” sino-russian is “solid as a rock” and “the prospects for future cooperation are immense”.
In this logic, one of Beijing’s objectives is to seek to present explanations for the offensive behavior of Vladimir Putin. This amounts to reproducing, without the slightest hindsight, certain elements of Russian propaganda. As early as March 8, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs took up a theory according to which the United States would control in Ukraine “hazardous biological laboratories”.
On March 17, the same Xinhua agency published an editorial under the title “Washington, the greatest tyrant in the world”.
According to the official Chinese news agency Xinhua, “The United States has twenty-six biological laboratories and other related sites in Ukraine, over which the Pentagon has full control. In addition, it is required that all dangerous pathogens in Ukraine be stored in these laboratories, and that all research activities be supervised by the American side.”
The Beijing press repeats these accusations and adds that “These revelations about US biological military activities in Ukraine raise many concerns, but they only reveal the tip of the iceberg of the US “biological military empire” around the world”.
On March 17, the same Xinhua agency published an editorial under the title “Washington, the greatest tyrant in the world” who believes that the United States has “a warlike history strewn with military intrusions and covert subversions […]. The primitive American culture of piracy, which defends plunder and conquest, has been accentuated by Washington, to the point of becoming a hegemonic foreign policy, consisting of flexing your muscles when the opportunity arises, brutalizing others when it suits you. sings and dictates the rules of the world as if it were natural.
Always on March 17Zhao Lijian, one of the spokespersons of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, develops a widespread idea in Russia according to which “the United States and NATO are responsible for the war in Ukraine”. Which leads him to say: “We hope that the United States and NATO can reflect on their role in the Ukraine crisis, assume their responsibilities, and take practical steps to […] bring about a rapid solution to the conflict.” This presentation does not envisage any Russian responsibility for the current situation in Ukraine.
Shortage of concrete
With such a state of mind on the Chinese side, it is not surprising that, on the American side, videoconference conversation nearly two hours on March 18 between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden was deemed disappointing. The Chinese press reports that Xi Jinping began by telling Joe Biden: “The Ukrainian crisis is something we don’t want to see.” He did not, however, condemn the Russian invasion and spoke of “conflict” or of «confrontation» without ever using the word “war”.
But Xi Jinping made a point of underlining the role that, according to him, China, like the United States, is able to play to avoid this kind of conflict. To the American president, he said: “As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and [étant] the two largest economies in the world, we must […] assume our international responsibilities and make efforts for world peace and tranquility.”
Xi Jinping thus suggests that the United States needs China to end hostilities in Ukraine. But it does not go further, at least for the moment. And on March 25, the People’s Daily, the official organ of the Communist Party, summed up the Chinese government’s current position with this headline: “Let’s inject more stability into a turbulent and changing world”.
Many on the internet support explanations that blame America for the war.
In Washington, White House advisers seem to have been confused by Xi Jinping’s vague remarks. They took the time to listen to them again before indicating in a press release that Joe Biden had explained the position of the United States and its allies and partners on this crisis.
On this subject, President Joe Biden gave details when he came to Brussels on March 24. At a press conferencehe explained what he had said: “I didn’t make any threats but made it clear to Xi Jinping and made sure he understood the consequences of helping Russia.” And to add“China understands that its economic future is much more closely tied to the West than to Russia.”
At the very least, these March 18 exchanges between the American and Chinese presidents indicate a deep mutual distrust. This obviously comes from the climate of competition and the trade sanctions that Donald Trump has instituted against China and that Joe Biden has not called into question. It seems that Xi Jinping carefully avoids to agree with the Americans.
On the other hand, what probably does not simplify China’s attitude on the Ukrainian question either, are the current debates between Chinese on the behavior of Russia. Many on the internet support explanations that blame America for the war. But there are also students from universities in Beijing who have come together to firmly denounce the war and recall that China signed a mutual security pact with Ukraine in 1994.
In Beijing too, eminent history professors published, from the start of the conflict, an open letter denouncing “Russia’s invasion of a sovereign state, in violation of international standards.” There are also Internet users who, on their Weibo account, are asking questions about this conflict in Ukraine such as: “Are we still in a feudal period where the goal is to expand its territory?”
Other concerns
Furthermore, an article on the Ukrainian question published in the Communist Party’s internal press was translated into English on March 12 in an American newspaper specializing in Chinese news, the US-China Perception Monitor. The author of this article is Hu Wei. He is vice-president of a Chinese government research center at the same time as a professor at the Institute of Marxist Studies of the School of the Communist Party of Shanghai and he wrote that “This military operation in Ukraine constitutes an irreversible error”.
Therefore, Hu Wei considers that “China must avoid being isolated as Russia has become” and he continues: “China cannot be tied to Putin and must sever ties with him as soon as possible. China must get rid of this burden at the earliest. It must adopt an attitude of neutrality. On March 20, censorship made this article untraceable in China.
For lack of a good solution, the Chinese number 1 seems for the moment not to seek to intervene to try to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It is clear that the Chinese leadership does not want to rush into an initiative aimed at stopping hostilities in Ukraine. For this result not to be perfectly random, there would have to be real changes on the ground. However, the fighting continues well beyond what Vladimir Putin had most likely announced in Beijing in February.
Moreover, for the Chinese Communist Party, there are other considerable issues to manage this year: maintaining acceptable economic growth while Chinese domestic demand is disappointing, countering the sharp rise in raw materials or even preventing the epidemic of Covid from spreading in the country. And this fall, the Communist Party will hold its twentieth congress, during which Xi Jinping decreed that he would be invested for a third term as general secretary. This, while his predecessors had to limit themselves to two terms of five years.
However, Xi Jinping can hardly erase the special relationship he staged with Vladimir Putin. The two men have met thirty-eight times since 2013 and they wanted to show that a common Russian-Chinese will would be able to supplant the dominance of the United States and its allies in world affairs. Today, Xi Jinping knows that he would be openly criticized in the Communist Party if he turned his back on Vladimir Putin. On the contrary, if he continues to avoid criticizing Moscow’s attitude, this risks associating China with the war in Ukraine.
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For lack of a good solution, the Chinese number 1 seems for the moment not to seek to intervene to try to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While waiting perhaps for a change in the situation and the fighting to allow him to play the role of arbiter. Which could only be beneficial for its international image.
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