With the war in Ukraine turning into a long and bloody battle, Ukrainian and Russian officials are willing to discuss appeasement, amid tough demands from both sides making “serious negotiations” streamlined in the near future.
Peace plan and “tepid” response.
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed speech on his 10-point peace plan that he presented in mid-November and deals with the restoration of territorial integrity, the fate of prisoners and food security, according to “Agence France Presse” .
The plan calls for the withdrawal of Russian forces from internationally recognized Ukrainian lands, meaning Russia abandons the four regions it announced its annexation along with the Crimea peninsula that Moscow seized in 2014, according to Reuters.
Ukraine this week proposed holding a “peace summit” by the end of February, but said Russia could only attend if it was first faced with a war crimes tribunal, according to a newspaper report.The New York Times”.
This prompted a tepid response from Moscow, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov saying “Kyiv must agree to all of Russia’s demands,” including giving up four Ukrainian regions that Moscow says it is annexing, according to the Russian news agency.Nut“.
He stressed that Moscow will not use the “peace formula” proposed by the Ukrainian president, stating that “Kyiv is not yet ready for real peace talks”.
Lavrov said Kyiv’s idea of expelling Russia from eastern Ukraine and Crimea with Western help was an “illusion”.
In September, Moscow announced the annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions after referendums condemned by Ukraine and Western countries. Russia is not imposing full control over any of the four regions, according to Reuters.
In recent months, Russia has lost much of the land it occupied from Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces are fighting to regain all the land Moscow has seized, according to the New York Times.
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that “it is impossible to accept a peace plan that does not recognize these four Ukrainian regions.”
“There cannot be a peace plan in Ukraine that does not take into account today’s realities regarding Russian territories with four regions joining Russia… And plans that do not take into account these realities cannot be peaceful,” he said Peskov, according to the Russian News Agency. “Nut“.
Hard positions and “military” solutions.
Analysts say the stiffening positions mean both sides believe they have more to gain on the battlefield, according to the New York Times.
“This suggests that there isn’t necessarily a push for a negotiated peace or even some kind of negotiation, but there is still a push for any militarily pursued endgame,” said Marni Howlett, a professor of Russia and US politics. Eastern Europe at the University of Oxford.
Ukraine has the momentum, reclaiming much of the territory captured by Russia at the start of the war, but Russian forces still occupy much of the east and south.
In the autumn, the Ukrainian army, which was receiving loads of western weapons, was able to launch important counterattacks which allowed it to reconquer territory, in particular the city of Kherson, the capital of the homonymous region, which was a serious blow to the arrest for Moscow, according to “AFP”.
Russian forces abandoned the city of Kherson last month, one of Ukraine’s most important gains during the war. The region is of strategic importance as it lies at the mouth of the Dnipro River and is a gateway to the Crimea annexed by Russia, according to Reuters.
Kherson residents’ joy at the city’s liberation soon faded due to intense Russian shelling from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, and many have since fled.
Ukraine’s military said Wednesday that Russia had launched a flurry of attacks on the southern city of Kherson, including an attack that damaged a maternity ward, as officials continued to urge residents to evacuate.
And the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in its morning report Wednesday that Russia fired 33 missiles from rocket launchers at civilian targets in Kherson during the 24-hour period through Wednesday morning, while Russia denies targeting the civilians.
Images posted by a Ukrainian official on “.TelegramAfter the raid, windows were shattered, a hole in the ceiling and piles of rubble in one of the rooms.
What then?
There have been no peace talks between Ukraine and Russia since the first weeks of the conflict, which began when Russia launched a full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, and both sides have indicated their determination to keep fighting, according to the New York Times.
Karin von Hippel, director general of the Royal United Services Institute, a military think tank in London, believes Russia and Ukraine are poised for a protracted conflict.
“Putin still feels he can win the war, he still has more men and more money,” he said.
As evidence of Russian military atrocities mounts and as Ukraine continues to succeed on the battlefield, Kiev’s negotiating stance has become “tougher,” according to the New York Times.
Analysts say Ukraine is keen to show its European allies, who are facing higher energy costs this winter due to a Russian oil embargo, that it sees “a way out of the conflict”.
“In the wars of modern European history, it was the victors on the battlefield who pushed hard for peace,” said Stella Gervas, a professor of Russian history at Newcastle University in Britain.
And in the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II, successful military leaders and peacemakers were often the same individuals, according to his New York Times interview.
According to her, “serious initiatives to make peace during major wars in Europe always come from the strongest on the battlefield”.
And Russia must demonstrate that it will negotiate in good faith and act on the terms of any peace deal to earn some level of trust from Ukraine, which it has invaded twice in less than a decade, according to the New York Times.
“Ukraine will always be Russia’s neighbor,” Marnie Howlett said, stressing that any peace deal must come with an acknowledgment and understanding that Moscow “won’t do it again.”
