The Central Bank must take actions in its monetary policy rate if it wants to change the course of the foreign currency
The excess of dollars in the market will remain during the second half of the year and this will keep the price low.
Read more: Price of the dollar will fall more due to Eurobonds
The income of the two disbursements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an amount of $521 million and the negotiation of the second placement of the Eurobonds cause the dollar to continue appreciating.
Read more: Eurobonds give companies, households and the government peace of mind
The first loan for $275 million corresponds to the Expanded Service agreement with the IMF and the second will be for $246 million, which corresponds to the first review of the measures of the Resilience and Sustainability Service.
So far this year, the exchange rate has appreciated by 22% and this has left winners and losers.
The dollar has remained low and this worries the private sector even more, which has been clamoring for the price of this currency to rise and thus protect investment and jobs that depend on that currency for their profits.
Likewise, they request that the monetary policy rate be increased, however, although reductions have been approved, they have not yet caused effects that will raise the price of the dollar.
“Since June 2022, the Central Bank has not taken measures and this means that the excess or surplus of dollars in the windows will go from $2,292 million to $6,480 million, an 83% increase and this means that ¢150 less is being paid for each dollar, reducing the income from sales of companies”, said Gerardo Corrales, economist at Economía Hoy.
And it is that this policy of the monetary authority is being classified by the Central Bank as restrictive, which could change on July 26 if it decides to further reduce the monetary policy rate.
“If the Central Bank significantly reduces the monetary policy rate, but the entry of dollars into the economy from international credits and Eurobonds is very high, then the exchange rate would be pushed further downwards (appreciation of the colon) in the coming months ”, assured Roxana Morales, an economist at the National University.
The truth of the matter is that the dollar would not rise this semester at prices like those reported last year, which reached ¢700, moreover, the projection is that it will be between ¢550 and ¢580 at the end of the year, according to economists. consulted by THE REPUBLIC.
Expectations
It is anticipated by economists that it is very likely that on July 26 the monetary policy rate will be further reduced, taking into account the inflow of dollars.
Karla Arguedas
Manager
Prival Advisory & Strategy
The war against inflation is being won and this creates space for the Central Bank to lower the monetary policy rate, which will cause an increase in the demand for dollars. In addition, a series of dollars are arriving as a result of the second tranche of Eurobonds for $1,500 and other international loans, and these forces will allow the exchange rate to be contained and to remain stable.
Daniel Suchar
Analyst
Independent
The entry of $521 million from the International Monetary Fund in tracts and the placement of Eurobonds cause Costa Rica to be swimming in dollars in the coming months and this means that the Central Bank has to lower the monetary policy rate by more than 7% so that let us have an exchange rate more in line with reality, for the sake of exports, tourism and foreign direct investment, but above all employment.
2023-07-07 12:04:18
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