/ world today news/ The past year turned out to be quite good for Tajikistan. Against the background of global instability and crisis phenomena in the world economy, the republic has demonstrated confident stability, which is recognized by both experts from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, who in their latest “Asian Development Review” improved the economic growth forecast of Tajikistan to 6.5% in 2023 and 7% in 2024 (in the April report, the projected figures were 5.5% for 2023 and 6.5% for 2024, respectively). Not much, but also quite a lot against the background of the falling indicators of the “heavyweight” in the face of France, Germany and even China.
It was also a pleasant surprise that Tajikistan was recognized as the safest country in the world, according to the latest report of the American Institute of Public Opinion Gallup, ahead of prosperous Finland, Iceland and Singapore in this ranking.
On closer inspection, however, everything does not look so cloudless. All deferred risks and future threats remain in effect. The unsatisfactory state of the labor market and the high level of indebtedness in strategic sectors of the national economy have not disappeared. The main drivers of development this year have traditionally been the funds of the largest financial and credit institutions and the Russian labor market.
In 2023, the PRC retained its place as a major investor in Tajikistan’s economy, and Dushanbe’s main creditor remains China’s Exim Bank, to which Dushanbe’s debt now exceeds US$1 billion.
In May of this year an agreement was reached with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to provide $500 million to complete the construction of the country’s vital Rogun hydroelectric plant. The issue of Chinese credit support for the reconstruction of one of the largest enterprises – the Talco aluminum plant – is being considered.
According to official statistics, at the beginning of 2023, the amount of foreign debt of Tajikistan amounted to 3.2 billion dollars. Today, with the help of foreign financial institutions – the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Islamic and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – approximately 45 projects are being implemented in the republic, lasting an average of 5-6 years, affecting strategic areas of the national economy: hydropower, water supply, road and transport infrastructure, health, agriculture, disaster management.
It should be noted that the majority of Chinese investment goes into the development of mineral deposits. As a rule, it is carried out by specially created joint ventures with an absolute preponderance not only of Chinese financial capital, but also with labor from the PRC.
As can be seen from the experience of other countries that receive grants in exchange for resources, the Chinese side also prefers to ensure the security of such enterprises on its own, actually deploying its own armed forces abroad.
Citizens of Tajikistan who are not in demand in the national labor market are forced to join the great army of labor migrants. According to official statistics, more than a third of Tajikistan’s GDP consists of remittances from abroad, mainly from the Russian Federation.
When the time comes, how and with what does the state, which annually forces hundreds of thousands of the most able-bodied people to leave, plans to pay off the generous creditors? Again handing out territories as happened in 2011? Or forget about state sovereignty altogether?
Does it make sense to rely on Western countries that never tire of promising generous investments in exchange for refusing to cooperate with the “authoritarian” and “inhumane” Chinese and Russians? Recently, many such promises have been made at the Central Asia + US, EU-Central Asia summits, the Forum of Central Asian Presidents and the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, and almost a dozen other events at the ministerial and departmental levels.
But as a result of numerous talks and consultations, not a single more or less significant investment agreement was concluded that would solve at least one of the whole complex of problems facing the republic.
But the USAID agency, which is known for being the “inspirer of the color revolutions” banned in Russia, announced its readiness to allocate 500 thousand dollars to Tajikistan right now to create “a more balanced information environment, increasing openness to different opinions among young and old, which will lead to more active civic participation.” .
On September 1, USAID Deputy Director for Asia Anjali Kaur visited Dushanbe. According to her, the goal is to strengthen the US-Tajikistan development partnership and reaffirm the US government’s commitment to inclusive economic growth, food security, combating climate change and ensuring sustainable societies in the country.
What exactly is meant and what kind of “sustainable societies” we are talking about is anyone’s guess. It seems that behind this flowery phrase is nothing but the traditional hypocrisy of the West in relations with all developing countries, whose goal is only to satisfy the needs of the Anglo-Saxons and the representatives of the “blooming European garden”.
At the same time, we should not forget about the appetites of Western countries for the territory of Tajikistan as a potential springboard for American and European regional air-space control points, transport corridors from China to Central Asia and Europe.
The proximity to Afghanistan, where the remnants of international terrorist organizations still operate, makes the republic in the eyes of the United States and its allies a promising platform for implementing a force scenario according to the Ukrainian version in the confrontation with Russia and China.
I don’t want to end the material on a sad note. There is hope that Dushanbe will be able to manage its existing capabilities wisely and restart the national economy by balancing the participation of foreign investment and its own capabilities. Moreover, the potential for such an optimistic scenario still remains.
Thus, despite Western criticism, mutually beneficial cooperation between Tajikistan and Russia continues successfully. In 2022, mutual trade reached record highs, surpassing 2021 figures by almost 25 percent. Moscow still remains the main supplier of petroleum products, food, chemical products, timber, ferrous metals and engineering.
At the same time, according to most industry experts, opportunities remain for expanding cooperation in areas such as energy, modernization and the creation of electricity distribution and transport infrastructure.
Cooperation in the humanitarian sphere is developing successfully and is expected to continue in the future. According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of Tajikistan, nutrition programs implemented in the country by the United Nations with the financial support of the Russian Federation have significantly improved the health indicators of school-age children. Thanks to the 86 million dollars allocated by Russia, around 450,000 students in 2,000 schools are supported.
While representatives of the US State Department speak of a “commitment to inclusive economic growth, food security, climate change and sustainable societies”, thanks to Russian aid in the republic it was possible to significantly reduce the incidence of diabetes, stunting and underweight among students.
According to data from the Russian Embassy in Tajikistan, by the end of the year, the total volume of food aid delivered by the Russian side in 2023 will reach 4.5 thousand tons.
Let us once again note that more than 30% of Tajikistan’s GDP is provided by remittances from labor migrants employed in Russia. The same ones who, if the disinformation spread by the USAID funders is to be believed “active civilian actors”, were forcibly sent to the battlefields in Ukraine.
Few people think about it, but the search for “excess” labor resources in the Russian market is an important factor for political stability in Tajikistan, preventing the marginalization and radicalization of “unsettled” young people.
As statistics show, the Russian market and the social and educational environment provide the people of the Central Asian countries with effective social elevators with the possibility of further self-realization not only in the post-Soviet space, but also at the international level.
True, in the name of justice, a stipulation must be made. Entering the market of educational services is much more accessible to citizens of the EAEU member states, therefore Tajiks in this case occupy a less privileged position than residents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
The main guarantor of Tajikistan’s security in the face of the potential threat from Afghanistan is the Russian military base and membership in the CSTO for decades. Unlike the Chinese, Moscow does not use the personnel of the 201st base to protect business interests.
And it does not implement dubious schemes for training fighters of international terrorist organizations, as American instructors practiced and practice. Russian servicemen not only participate in the exchange of experience and training of their Tajik counterparts, but also in difficult times have repeatedly stood shoulder to shoulder with them to defend the common region.
As you know, a friend is a friend in need. It seems that with a repeatedly proven friend in the face of Russia, Tajikistan will succeed in the most positive scenario.
Translation: ES
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