Schematic diagram of Taiwan stocks.
Recently, foreign investors have been playing two strategies in Taiwan’s capital market, shorting first and selling later. They have achieved great success in the stock and futures dual markets, making money on both sides, and cutting off investors’ wealth. In particular, although the net short positions of foreign futures open positions have declined slightly in the past two days, they were still as high as 19,682 as of yesterday (5). The market outlook is still not optimistic and has become the focus of heated market discussions.
Observing the entry and exit dynamics of foreign capital from the end of last year to the first week of this year, we first actively over-purchase in the spot market to induce bullishness and create a bullish bias, thereby attracting long buyers to enter the market to pursue purchases. On the other hand, there are large short orders in the futures market and net short orders in futures. Keep climbing higher and play with two strategies. It is somewhat similar to the reappearance of the early Taiwanese stock market’s “support, arbitrage, and killing” drama of retail investors.
In fact. The short positions of foreign investors in the futures market have increased five times in a row since December 26 last year, which was more than 11,000. In just five trading days, the number of open short positions surged to more than 24,000 on January 3 this year. The number of exports hit a peak in more than a quarter, with an increase of up to double.
During the same period, foreign investors bought first and then sold in the centralized market. On the one hand, they actively induced bulls to buy five times in a row, and on the other hand, they pushed up the index. When the index reached its highest point on December 29, the last trading day last year, there were no open positions. The number of net short orders has accumulated to more than 16,000.
On January 2 this year, the net short orders of foreign futures continued to rise to more than 17,000. On that day, the spot market only slightly bought more than 1.04 billion. However, the index had already declined from its peak. It fell 77 points that day, which showed that the power to attract bulls was significantly reduced. Therefore, the real The drama of closing the net was staged on the 3rd.
On January 3, due to the sharp decline in U.S. technology stocks, foreign investors lowered the target price of TSMC (2330). It was a good time for foreign investors to close short orders in futures. Therefore, foreign investors added short positions in the futures market, and the net short orders increased to more than 24,000. mouth, intensifying market selling pressure.
On the other hand, there was a massive sell-off in the spot market, with a massive sale of 28.8 billion yuan. The impact index opened lower and ended with a 294-point loss.
The large-scale selling in the spot market not only realized profit-taking after short-term buying, but also assisted the collapse of Taiwan index futures, causing the potential unrealized profit surge of tens of thousands of short orders in the futures market, which is quite similar to the main players in the early Taiwan stock market. The drama of “raising, trapping, and killing” retail investors reappears.
On January 4 and 5, although the net short positions of foreign futures contracts were slightly covered, they were still as high as more than 19,000 lots, and the spot market was still oversold. Futures experts analyze that this wave of foreign investment strategies to close the Internet may not be over yet, and the market may continue to correct next week, which is not optimistic.
In the spot market, foreign investors have been selling continuously in recent days, which may trigger a wave of high-end stop-loss and low-end profit-taking double selling pressure in the market. According to statistics as of yesterday, foreign investors have sold in the spot market three times in a row, and the cumulative amount of oversold has reached nearly 30.5 billion yuan.
This week, foreign investors sold the most, with MediaTek (2454) at 6.12 billion yuan, followed by Wistron (3231) at 5.8 billion yuan, TSMC at 4.25 billion yuan, China Southern Power (8046), Quanta (2382), Gigabyte (2376), and Yingye Datong (2356) is also the hardest-hit area. Almost all adjustments are made to popular index industrial stocks, and the attempt to suppress the index is self-evident.
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2024-01-06 22:34:15
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