Taiwan Stock Market Surges: Shipping Stocks Propel Market Movement Post Epidemic

The theme of today’s report is “One piece is coming again, the increase in shipping profit fueled the biggest market movement after the epidemic. “

Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang confirmed that stocks that investors view conservatively have risen, and this phenomenon is more obvious at 20,000 points. On March 21, Taiwan’s stock market reached 20,000 points for the first time So far, construction, 23%, shipping, 22%, and finance were the biggest increase in various stocks has been the best performer in Taiwan stock, it only rose a little 2% if TSMC was removed.2330-TW), most other electronic stocks made no progress at 20,000 points.

Non-electronic performance is leading, and shipping stocks are the biggest influence on Taiwan stocks. Sanxiong Evergreen Container (2603-TW), Yang Ming (2609-TW), Wan Hai (2615-TW) and airline duo China Airlines (2610-TW), EVA Air (2618-TW) with very large transaction volumes, so large that they collect electrons.

In the 2021 One Piece era, shipping as a whole was very popular, and trade volume once accounted for as high as 40% of Taiwan’s stock market. Between April and June, when the three container stocks doubled, electronics stocks were piled with cash for three months, causing their stock prices to fall.

Some time ago, acquisitions took off, and corporate purchases came largely from investment banks. setting a record for the biggest purchase of the year.

A trading performance of 20,000 points is a decisive battle for the chips At first, everyone had a conservative or even optimistic view of the stock, and it was certain that legal people and China Real Accounts did not have a basic property and it grew hopeful

Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that shipping has three turning points. Maersk, the world’s largest ship leader, is optimistic about this increase Investors do not need to believe any experts, but they need to listen to the words of Maersk covering all corners of the world, and it has accurate information about the shipping increase .It is about 1 to 2 months ahead of Taiwan stock shipping movement.

At the end of March 2021, Evergreen Group’s Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, and Maersk warned that the COVID-19 epidemic would worsen the supply of shipping capacity. However, the real increase in shipping stock occurred Taiwanese in May, when the stock Sanxiong Container price only reached 100 yuan.

At the end of February this year, Maersk warned that shipping disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis could last until the second half of the year, at which time, Yangming and Wanhai were paid more than 40 yuan per had Maersk followed Maersk’s words, they would now have received 50% of their compensation.

On May 2, Maersk raised its full-year financial forecast for 2024, but the market was unfazed. The share prices of the three shipping companies fell the next day. Since the sentiment of the container market returned in 2022, Maersk has revised its financial forecast upwards for the first time, sending bullish key indicators and raising the EPS of the year -sa in the future.

The second turning point is that Shanghai Container Line European Line futures continue to hit East’s historic highs. While the Shanghai Container Shipping Index rose for the month in April, Taiwan’s shipping stocks were also slow to make any moves. It was only in May that shipping stocks launched an attack.

The third turning point is that the Shanghai SCFI export machine commodity index has seen the biggest increase this year SCFI is the real-time commodity index. The demand after the May Day holiday was much higher than expected.

SCFI rose to a historic high of 5,100 points in the first half of 2022, and also fell to a low of 900 points in the second half of 2023. It is now 2,300 points, and should soon return to 2,500 points, half of the historical points. high

Only Evergreen is profitable at SCFI 1,000 points, with an average of 2,000 points in the first quarter of this year Yang Ming and Wan Hai have already made profits. If it reaches 2,500 points in the second quarter, the profits of the three shipping companies will increase, and the fixed costs of the shipping industry will not change much, shipping companies will jump and grow.

Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that there are three reasons why commodity prices are still bullish in June prices will rise again.

ZIM, Israel’s largest shipping company and the tenth largest container ship in the world, has seen its stock price rise by 80% since April 19, when Israel retaliated against Iran on that day, which fell Taiwan’s stock market 1,200 points, proving that shipping stocks are the biggest beneficiaries of the conflict in the Middle East.

Second, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates in June.EURWith the distribution of regional demand, June is the vantage point for the off-season movement of vessels from Asia to Europe to peak season.

Finally, China’s economy is gradually improving. Container 3 is full of rising stock genes it will accelerate to make up for the future increase.

Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang confirmed that the market greatly underestimated the financial statements of shipping stocks. . Yangming also has 9.4 billion Yuan, with an EPS of 2.69 Yuan, although the surplus was greatly advanced in the second quarter, but the exchange rate increase will greatly contribute to the overall surplus.

Wanhai’s Q2 EPS is estimated at 2 yuan, and Yangming’s estimate is even higher at 3 yuan, it was flat, but now it will be significantly revised upwards. Yang Ming’s full-year EPS was raised to 8 yuan and Wanhai’s EPS was increased to 6 yuan.

The market estimates that Evergreen’s EPS this year will also be 20 yuan, better than expected.

Yumin’s Big Wheel (2606-TW) Q1 EPS was 1.17 yuan, compared to 0.59 yuan in the same period last year, an annual increase of 98%. Masanori (2641-TW) Q1 EPS was 0.52 yuan, compared to 0.32 yuan in the same period last year, an annual increase of 63%. .

Coming up (2605-TW) Q1 EPS was 0.6 yuan, compared to 0.21 yuan in the same period last year, an annual increase of 185%.

Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang confirmed that commodity levels are large BDI indexClosely linked to the Chinese economy, BDI has hit a double-digit level and broken through the throat this year, and is expected to rise further in the second quarter. Zhengde Fashuo released good news that wholesale is growing quarter after quarter and will be strong until the end of the year.

The financial reports on airline stocks are amazing. yuan , and China Airlines has a high level of cargo In addition, the legal entity China Airlines has a low level of growth will be greater at this level.

Article source: Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang

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