![[Column]Revival of the Fed’s reversal scenario due to bank failures – Authors](https://i0.wp.com/assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iiIYPWN07nFM/v1/1200x800.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1 "[Column]Revival of the Fed’s reversal scenario due to bank failures – Authors")
The world financial system is in turmoil. The US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has gone bankrupt. Washington Mutual was forced to file for bankruptcy in the wake of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, making it the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since then. New York’s Signature Bank was also forced to shut … Read more
Bank runs, increased Fed resolve on inflation, credit risk, and recession risk. Investors have absorbed many shocks over the past few days. It may be impossible to shake them all off at once. The problem is that when one threat subsides, another emerges. The economy is either overheating or at risk of worsening from financial … Read more
Young mothers push strollers among citizens resting in the shade on a hot summer day in a park in central Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina. This is a common sight in this middle-class region, but there was one difference. All these mothers speak Russian. Thousands of Russians have flocked to Argentina since Russian President … Read more
riceGoldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon said the odds of a soft landing for the U.S. economy were “significantly higher” than they were six months ago. “The odds of a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2023-24 are more likely than I thought six months ago,” Solomon said at a conference hosted … Read more
Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. see the risk of a “Volmageddon 2.0” that could affect the market as a result of increased trading in ultra-short-term options with less than 24 hours to maturity. He again elaborated on his claim that it would increase This claim is controversial. A 5% drop in the S&P 500 … Read more
Morgan Stanley has turned neutral on Japanese value stocks. I don’t think the recent outperformance will continue. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is of the view that the strong trend of value stocks will continue with tailwinds from Japan and overseas. The outperformance of the MSCI Japan Value Index against the MSCI … Read more
Several U.S. Federal Reserve officials said on Monday that inflation was too high and would take time to calm down. A paper released today suggested that the US policy rate may need to be raised to 6.5% as January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index posted better-than-expected gains. “These inflation numbers are still not where … Read more
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s favorite indicator of inflation, posted better-than-expected gains in January in both the headline index and the core index, which excludes food and energy. PCE also increased significantly, putting more pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates. Key Point PCE Composite Price Index rises 0.6% … Read more
Bond futures fell. US long-term interest rates have risen sharply following the announcement of strong economic indicators, and selling has become dominant following the downward trend in futures trading at night. The new 10-year government bond has yet to be traded, but some speculate that the yield may exceed the Bank of Japan’s upper limit … Read more
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said on Monday that widespread price pressures in the U.S. show the impact of monetary tightening so far has been limited, risking policy makers going beyond expectations. indicated that it was on the rise. “The Fed is trying to put the brakes on the economy, but it doesn’t seem to … Read more