Trading in anticipation of a weaker dollar has become increasingly popular among hedge funds and others after the U.S. Federal Reserve roiled markets by signaling an end to monetary tightening. According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data compiled by Bloomberg, non-commercial traders – speculative market participants such as hedge funds and asset managers – … Read more
U.S. Treasuries rose for the fourth straight week in the week that ended on the 22nd, marking their highest streak since March. Investors are becoming increasingly confident that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) core price index, the underlying inflation indicator … Read more
The outlook for U.S. inflation, which had already been steadily improving in recent months, was finally solidified over two days last week, just as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) statistics for November, released on the mornings of December 12th and 13th, respectively, reflect … Read more
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists have revised their 2024 target for the S&P 500 upward just a month after setting it. Goldman’s Kostin predicts S&P 500 to near record high next year With the Fed’s dovish turn last week and inflation slowing, real yields will fall, supporting stock valuations, the team led by David Kostin … Read more
I am a 59 year old retired union construction worker with a full pension of $80,000 per year with no COLA. I also receive Social Security Disability benefits for $3,400 per month. My wife, age 59, is an executive assistant to the director of operations at a large hospital and her income is $68,000. My … Read more
This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made comments that seemed to further embarrass the market, which had already been pricing in a shift to monetary easing, sparking confusion among market participants. It’s going up in the club. On the 15th, New York Fed President Williams said it was too early to discuss a March … Read more
Opinions among the big names in the bond world are divided as the focus is on how high the U.S. Treasury market will rise after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it is willing to cut interest rates. Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital, said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates … Read more
The US financial authorities are likely to decide to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be held for two days until the 13th. On the other hand, market expectations that the government will cut interest rates as early as March next year … Read more
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that curbing inflation will have to be painful. However, there is now a growing possibility that this will not happen. The current unemployment rate is 3.7%, about the same level as it was in March 2022, when the interest rate hike began. Meanwhile, the pace of slowing inflation … Read more
The November US employment statistics released on the 8th show that growth in the number of employees and wages exceeded market expectations, and expectations for aggressive monetary easing next year have receded. US bond yields rose. The yield on two-year Treasuries, the benchmark most closely related to U.S. policy interest rates, rose 14 basis points … Read more