Predicting sports outcomes is simply a pastime or a way to make favorite sports exciting. However, to some, it’s a serious business. These are the ones who wouldn’t want to rely on gut feelings or basic stats when predicting matches.
It could be because they’re part of a competitive community where predictions and opinions matter or most of the time, they are participating in betting activities with real money involved. If the case is the latter, then it’s important to place logical bets only.
One may think that coming up with an accurate prediction that few sites like TheTopBookies provide is as simple as looking at a team’s win/loss records, latest stats, or today’s match prediction. While those are part of predicting accurate sports outcomes, there’s more to be done.
The Problem with Simple Metrics
This is the mistake of many who want to take sports predictions more seriously. They would heavily focus on just getting the latest stats or simple metrics like win/loss rates, latest scores, etc. While that makes sense the actual turn of events still matters and this is why being tactical is important. Before we even get there, here’s the problem with just looking at simple metrics:
- Limitations of Win/Loss Records: A team with a winning record might have played a weak schedule, or squeaked out victories in close matches. Conversely, a team with a losing record could be playing better than their record suggests. They might have suffered a string of narrow defeats against strong opponents, or been unlucky with injuries.
- Deceptive Goal Differentials: A big win can skew a team’s goal difference, so it can make them seem more dominant than they are. Similarly, a heavy defeat can unfairly paint a negative picture. This is why you need to follow the whole league or tournament. Don’t just rely on the results of one or two consecutive matches.
- The Need for Context: Numbers need context. Was that win against a top-ranked opponent or a bottom-feeder? Was that goal scored against a weakened defense? To make accurate predictions, you need to understand the “why” behind the numbers. For example, a striker might have an impressive goal-scoring record, but if most of those goals came against weak defenses or from penalty kicks, it changes how you evaluate their true ability.
Using Tactical Concepts
So, what should be done aside from looking at basic stats? There are tactical concepts you can consider which are the following:
Possession vs. Direct Play
Some teams dominate possession with short passes and intricate build-up play. Others prefer a more direct approach, using long balls and quick counter-attacks.
This concept applies to many sports. In basketball, some teams prioritize ball movement and passing to create scoring opportunities (think Golden State Warriors), while others rely on individual brilliance and isolation plays (like a team with a dominant center).
In hockey, some teams utilize a puck possession system, while others focus on a dump-and-chase approach. Analyzing metrics like pass completion rates, assists, and time of possession can reveal a team’s style and effectiveness.
Pressing and Defensive Structure
How aggressively a team presses and how organized their defense is can significantly impact their ability to concede goals and create turnovers. So, you should also look at metrics like tackles won, interceptions, and successful pressures to assess their defensive strength.
Transitional Play
Transitions – those moments when possession changes hands – are crucial in certain sports like football. Some teams excel at counter-attacking, while others are vulnerable in these situations. Analyzing metrics like counter-attacking goals, successful tackles after losing possession, and time taken to regain possession can also give you valuable insights.
Data Sources and Tools
Lucky for modern sports fans, there are a ton of places you can check for both basic and more in-depth sports analysis. Services like StatsBomb and Opta now provide detailed tactical metrics, including pressure events, progressive passes, and defensive line height.
For those who want to go deeper, specialized platforms provide even more in-depth data and analysis tools.
Also, know that there’s no substitute for watching games yourself. Always pay attention to how teams set up, how they press, and how they attack and defend. It’s easy to watch any sports match anyway, and whether you prefer that on TV or online, you always have various options.
Conclusion
Incorporating tactical analysis into your predictions can give you a significant edge. So go beyond simple metrics and gain a deeper understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Even if there will always be the element of unpredictability in sports, tactical analysis is a valuable tool for anyone who wants to make more informed predictions.
