Syria’s economy: From $67.5 Billion to $9 Billion in a Decade of Conflict
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Jakarta – Syria’s economy, valued at $67.5 billion in 2011, has been devastated by nearly 14 years of conflict, shrinking to just $9 billion in 2022, according to World Bank estimates. the country, once ranked 68th globally in terms of GDP, now stands at 129th, comparable to nations like Chad and Palestine.
The civil war,international sanctions,and the displacement of over 4.82 million people have taken a severe toll on Syria, already one of the poorest countries in the Middle East. The conflict has also internally displaced an additional seven million Syrians,more than 30% of the population,according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian affairs (OCHA).
the war has destroyed Syria’s infrastructure, causing permanent damage to electricity supply, transportation, and health systems. Cities like Aleppo, raqqa, and Homs have suffered extensive damage. The conflict has also led to a significant devaluation of the Syrian Pound, drastically reducing purchasing power.
According to the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR), the country experienced hyperinflation in 2022, with the consumer price index (CPI) doubling compared to the previous year.More than half of Syrians now live in extreme poverty, unable to meet basic food needs.
Two key sectors of Syria’s economy,oil and agriculture,have been devastated by the war.In 2010, oil exports accounted for about a quarter of government revenue, while food production contributed equally to GDP. The assad regime lost control of most of it’s oil fields, which were seized by rebel groups, including ISIS and kurdish-led forces. International sanctions have further limited the government’s ability to export oil, leading to a heavy reliance on imports from Iran.
Rebuilding Syria: A Long and Uncertain Road Ahead
Before the daunting task of rebuilding damaged cities, infrastructure, oil, and agricultural sectors can begin, more clarity is needed regarding the incoming Syrian government.Some observers have warned that it could take nearly a decade for Syria to return to its 2011 GDP levels, and two decades to fully rebuild. They also worry that Syria’s prospects could worsen if further political instability occurs.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida-linked group that recently captured the Syrian capital Damascus, has stated that it is now working to form a new government. Though, strict international sanctions against syria remain in effect, and HTS itself is subject to international sanctions as a designated terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations. Western and Arab countries fear that the group may seek to replace the Assad regime.
The road to recovery for Syria is long and fraught with challenges,but the international community must work together to support the country’s reconstruction efforts and ensure a stable future for its people.
Amid the turmoil of Syria’s political landscape, the rise of a hardline Islamist government has sparked immediate calls for sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to be lifted or relaxed. However, the process could take weeks or months, leaving the war-torn country in a precarious position. Delaney Simon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the need for a ”carpet from Syria as the country tries to stand up.”
Without easing restrictions,investors will continue to avoid Syria,and aid agencies may be hesitant to provide vital humanitarian aid to the Syrian population. on Sunday evening, US President Joe Biden warned that syria faced a period of “risk and uncertainty” and pledged that the United States would help as best it could. “We will engage with all Syrian groups, including in the United nations-led process, to build a transition from the Assad regime to an independent and sovereign Syria with a new constitution,” he said.
Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump took to the Truth social network on Sunday, stating that washington should “not get involved.” The Associated Press reported on Monday that the Biden administration was considering whether to delist HTS as a terrorist group, citing two senior White House officials. One of the officials said HTS would be a “critical component” in Syria’s near future.
European Union spokesman Anouar El Anouni said Monday,”Brussels is not currently engaging with HTS or its leaders in any way” and that the bloc would “assess not only their words but also their actions.” Another priority in Syria’s reconstruction is the eastern region of Deir el-Zour, which holds about 40% of Syria’s oil reserves and several gas fields. The province is currently under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
What Will Happen Soon?
HTS leader Mohammed al-Jolani held talks with former prime minister and vice president Assad to discuss arrangements for a “transfer of power” from Sunday evening until early Monday morning. After a nationwide curfew was imposed, most shops across Syria remained closed on Monday. Reuters news agency quoted Syrian central bank sources and two commercial bankers as reporting that banks reopened on Tuesday and staff had been asked to return to the office. The Syrian pound currency will continue to be used, the source said.
The oil ministry asked all employees in the sector to return to their workplaces from Tuesday, adding protection would be provided to ensure their safety.UN aid chief Tom Fletcher wrote Sunday in X that his agency would ”respond wherever, whenever, and anything we can, to support people in need, including reception centers — food, water, fuel, tents, blankets.”
As several European countries said they would temporarily halt asylum claims for Syrian nationals,the UN refugee agency,UNHCR,called for “patience and vigilance” on the issue of returning refugees. Austria went further than most EU countries by saying the government in Vienna was preparing an “orderly return and deportation program” for Syrians.
This article is adapted from English.
(eng/ita)
Syria’s Long Road to Recovery: Economic Challenges and Political Uncertainty
in the wake of nearly 14 years of conflict, Syria’s economy has plummeted from $67.5 billion in 2011 to just $9 billion in 2022. As the international community grapples with the realities of this devastated nation, we sit down with Dr. Lina Harriri, a Middle Eastern economic expert, to discuss the challenges and the path forward for Syria amidst ongoing political instability and humanitarian crises.
Understanding the Economic Collapse
Senior editor: Dr. Harriri, thank you for joining us today. Can you explain what led to the dramatic decline in Syria’s economy over the past decade?
Dr. Lina Harriri: Thank you for having me.the collapse of Syria’s economy can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the civil war, international sanctions, and massive displacement of the population. Infrastructure has been destroyed, sectors like oil and agriculture—critical to the economy—have been severely impacted, and hyperinflation has resulted in more than half the population living in extreme poverty. The war has truly devastated Syria’s economic framework.
The Humanitarian Crisis
Senior Editor: It’s heartbreaking to hear. With over 4.82 million people displaced, what does this mean for the humanitarian situation on the ground?
Dr. Lina Harriri: The displacement crisis in Syria is staggering. Not only have millions fled the country, but internally, over 7 million people are displaced. This situation has made it incredibly challenging for aid agencies to provide support effectively. The economy’s collapse means that access to basic needs like food, shelter, and healthcare has been dramatically diminished, which further deteriorates the humanitarian situation.
Challenges in Rebuilding Syria
Senior Editor: What do you see as the main obstacles to rebuilding Syria, especially in the context of the new government’s formation?
Dr.Lina Harriri: Rebuilding Syria will indeed be a long and uncertain road. Beyond the physical destruction, political clarity is crucial. With the emergence of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and their intent to form a government, international sanctions remain a significant barrier. Additionally, there is fear and skepticism from Western and Arab countries regarding the intentions of HTS and their potential future governance. This lack of trust complicates any efforts for international investments or aid.
The Role of International Community
Senior Editor: how can the international community assist in Syria’s reconstruction while balancing the complexities of the situation?
Dr. Lina Harriri: It’s essential for the international community to engage in a constructive dialogue with all groups in Syria,including HTS,while ensuring any aid mitigates the risk of empowering terrorist organizations. A clear strategy is needed—one that focuses on humanitarian relief, supports moderate governance, and encourages infrastructure rebuilding while respecting the complexities of the Syrian landscape.
Looking Ahead
Senior Editor: given the current situation,what is your outlook for Syria over the next few years?
Dr. Lina Harriri: Realistically, if political stability can be achieved, it might take nearly a decade for Syria to regain its pre-war economic levels. Though, without significant international cooperation and a commitment to addressing both humanitarian needs and governance issues, the outlook remains bleak. The future of Syria is closely tied to the trajectory of its political landscape and the ability of its leadership to unite the populace under a stable and democratic framework.
Senior Editor: Thank you, Dr. Harriri, for your insights into this complex situation. We hope for a peaceful and prosperous future for the Syrian people.
