The recent turmoil unfolding in Syria has sent shockwaves across the region, raising concerns about its potential impact on Lebanon. The rapid advance of opposition forces, reminiscent of the early days of the Syrian revolution in 2011, has sparked fears of a renewed wave of instability and sectarian tensions.
political analyst Sarkis Abu Zeid, in an interview with Lebanon Debate, expressed deep apprehension about the situation. ”If the Syrian opposition manages to seize control of Homs and reach the outskirts of Akkar, what will the situation be like in northern Lebanon?” he questioned, highlighting the potential for spillover violence. Abu Zeid pointed to growing support for the opposition within Tripoli, even suggesting the possibility of an emirate being declared.
“The rise of ‘political Sunnism’ in Lebanon, seemingly at the expense of ‘political Shiism,’ is directly linked to the type of Sunnis we’re talking about,” Abu Zeid explained. “While some Sunnis may support this movement, others vehemently oppose it. The Syrian opposition represents a religiously fundamentalist project that could negatively impact liberal Sunnis, such as the Future Movement, and even harm Prime Minister Najib Mikati.”
Abu Zeid cautioned against expecting complete stability in lebanon, predicting that security disturbances are likely to erupt as a outcome of the Syrian crisis. “Any movements in support of the Syrian opposition could have dire repercussions, inflaming sectarian instincts in Lebanon, particularly since Lebanese Sunnis are not united in their views and allegiances,” he warned. He also noted the potential for a shift in the stance of groups like the Islamic Group and hamas in response to the evolving situation in Syria.
“There’s a great deal of ambiguity surrounding the Russian and Iranian positions in syria,” Abu Zeid observed. “Could Russian intelligence be unaware of these rapid developments? How could Russia abandon its last foothold on the Mediterranean so easily? This would represent a significant loss for both Russia and Iran.”
While some speculate that the Syrian developments will weaken Hezbollah and ultimately lead to its demise, Abu Zeid believes that “nothing ends in Lebanon.” The crucial question, he argues, is “how Hezbollah will survive, with what project, and on which side.”
Abu Zeid concluded by emphasizing that “future alliances will be shaped by these developments, and Lebanon’s fate will be determined by the regional and international political settlement.”
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