Syrian Rebels Surge South, Threatening Assad’s Grip and Regional Stability
As Syrian rebels, led by Tahrir al-Sham, continue their forceful advance south after retaking Aleppo, global powers brace for the potential consequences. Their advance towards the crucial M5 highway raises alarms, potentially cutting off Damascus from a significant portion of Syrian territory still controlled by Bashar al-Assad.
This would represent a major setback for the Assad regime, severing their access to the Mediterranean coast, including Russia’s Tartus Naval Docks and the Khmeimim military airport, both established in 2015 by Moscow as part of their intervention against anti-Assad factions.
"It would be a particularly humiliating setback," one expert commented. "It would also be a political slap in the face for Russia, which has been a staunch supporter of the al-Assad dynasty since before the fall of the Soviet Union."
The rippling effects of the conflict are already felt in neighboring Lebanon, where a fragile truce exists between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah, both an Iranian proxy and a key pillar in Assad’s power structure, has been weakened by its involvement in the conflict with Israel. The rebel advance towards Homs and the Lebanese border could further isolate Hezbollah, cutting off a vital supply route from Iran via Syria and Iraq.
Lebanese Members of Parliament like Antoine Habchi warn of the situation, stating, “One of the causes of what is happening today in Syria is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the passage of strategic weapons into Lebanon.” Habchi further emphasizes that, "Even al-Assad doesn’t control passage through his own territory here, which is controlled by other factions and international forces, and notably Iran.”
A Humanitarian Crisis Escalates
The renewed fighting has triggered a mass exodus, with an estimated 120,000 refugees fleeing conflict zones, according to the UN. Lebanon anticipates a surge in arrivals, adding to the strain on the already vulnerable nation. Fears are growing of a repeat of the devastating Syrian refugee crisis that engulfed Europe a decade ago, prompting calls for de-escalation from the US, UK, France, and Germany.
Habchi suggests the EU should establish protected zones within Syria to safeguard refugees, stating "The Aleppo region and the border region with Turkey will become safe, free from regime control. So we don’t have to wait for the entire Syrian problem to be resolved before these refugees return to Syrian territory.”
Global Powers Navigate a Shifting Landscape
The evolving Syrian situation presents complex challenges for key international actors:
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Turkey: While distancing itself from the rebel offensive, Ankara perceives an opportunity to bolsters its regional influence and exert pressure on Kurdish separatists. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan asserted, “It would be wrong to explain the events in Syria as any foreign intervention,” directly addressing concerns from Tehran, a major ally of the Syrian regime.
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Russia: The potential fall of Aleppo exposes Moscow to military overreach, jeopardizing its alliance with Iran due to conflicting military objectives. Russia seeks de-escalation through trilateral negotiations, hoping to mend relations with Ankara and stabilise its waning influence in Syria.
- United States: US A-10 attack aircraft, operating from the Al-Tanf base in Syria, have played a crucial role in supporting Kurdish separatists against isolated units of Assad’s army. This active involvement highlights the US commitment to maintain a presence in the region and counter Iranian influence.
The resurgence of violence in Syria adds another layer of complexity to the global geopolitical landscape. The consequences for regional stability, refugee flows, and the balance of power between major players remain uncertain as the conflict unfolds.