Excluding Honam, ‘swing vote’ voter turnout in metropolitan area and Chungcheong
The increase is noticeable compared to the previous general election, making it difficult to judge.
The recent approval ratings in the metropolitan area and Chungcheong are: National Power > Democratic Party
If the overall voter turnout increases, there is a possibility of victory.
2030’s reaction to Kim Jun-hyuk’s harsh words is also a variable
Photo = Yonhap News The advance voting rate for the April 10 general election to elect members of the 22nd National Assembly reached 31.28%, the highest ever for a general election. Amid recent criticism of both the ruling and opposition parties, attention is focused on which party will benefit from high early voting rates.
There has been a tendency to believe that the opposition party has an advantage when the early voting turnout is high. However, as the advance voting system has become established, supporters of both parties have coalesced, and the advance voting rate in the metropolitan area and Chungcheong area, which are classified as ‘swing voters’, has increased rapidly compared to the previous general election, leading to analysis that the results are unpredictable. In addition, as Kim Jun-hyuk, the Democratic Party’s candidate for Suwon-jeong, Gyeonggi Province, may have stimulated voters in their 20s and 30s due to his scandalous remarks in the past, it is predicted that high voter turnout will not necessarily be advantageous to the opposition party.
It was said that the opposition party would have an advantage if the early voting rate was high…
Photo = News 1 On the 6th, the National Election Commission announced that the voter turnout was provisionally calculated to be 31.28% as of 6 p.m. on the day when advance voting closed. This is the highest record among all general elections in which advance voting was applied. Until this day, 13,849,043 out of 44,280,011 voters participated in the early voting held at 3,565 polling stations across the country over two days.
The advance voting rate for this general election is 4.59 percentage points higher than the 21st general election in 2020 (26.69%). This is a 19.09% increase compared to the 20th general election in 2016 (12.19%), when advance voting was first applied. However, it is 5.65 percentage points lower than the 36.93% for the 2022 presidential election, which recorded the highest advance voting rate among all national elections in history.
Among the 17 cities and provinces across the country, Jeonnam has the highest early voting rate for this general election. Jeonnam’s early voting rate was 41.19%, the only one in the country to exceed 40%. Next, the advance voting rate in six cities and provinces exceeded the national average: Jeonbuk (38.46%), Gwangju (38%), Sejong (36.8%), Gangwon (32.64%), and Seoul (32.63%).
The place with the lowest early voting rate was Daegu, at 25.6%. Jeju (28.50%), Gyeonggi (29.54%), and Busan (29.57%) also failed to exceed 30%. In addition, Incheon (30.06%), Ulsan (30.13%), Chungnam (30.24%), Daejeon (30.26%), Chungbuk (30.64%), Gyeongnam (30.71%), and Gyeongbuk (30.75%) exceeded 30%, but the national average fell below.
Attention is focused on whether the advance voter turnout, which is the highest ever for a general election, will lead to an increase in voter turnout for the overall general election. Voter turnout in general elections held since 2000 was 57.2% for 16s, 60.6% for 17s, 46.1% for 18s, 54.2% for 19s, 58.0% for 20s, and 66.2% for 21s. In the 21st general election, the advance voting rate increased by 14.5% points compared to the 20th general election, and the overall voter turnout also increased by 8.2% points.
As the advance voting rate for this general election has increased compared to the 21st general election, some predict that the overall voter turnout could approach 70%. Experts believe that if voter turnout is high, there is a high tendency for the situation to get closer to that shown in current opinion polls. There is an interpretation that the situation is generally more advantageous to the opposition party, but there are also observations that if voter turnout increases in some battleground areas such as the Nakdong River belt, the number of ‘shy conservative’ voters who are not captured in public opinion polls will increase, which may work in the ruling party’s favor.
‘Swing Voter’ early voting rate increases… You have to open the lid
Photo = News 1 Advance voting was first introduced in national elections in the 6th local election in 2014. It has been generally believed that if the early voting rate is high, the opposition party has an advantage as the theory of judging the regime comes into play. Kang Seon-woo, spokesperson for the Democratic Party, also explained in a written briefing that day, “The enthusiasm for early voting, which is hotter than ever, shows the people’s desire to judge the Yoon Seok-yeol regime.”
However, experts also raise the possibility that a high early voting rate may not necessarily be advantageous to the opposition party, considering that early voting has been fully established institutionally and that supporters of both parties are likely to have gathered. The places where the advance voting rate increased the most compared to the 21st general election were Gwangju City (5.82% points), Gyeonggi-do (5.42% points), Jeollanam-do (5.42% points), Seoul (5.34% points), Incheon (5.33% points), and Chungcheongnam-do (4.93% points). percentage points), followed by Sejong (4.43% points).
Excluding Honam, the Democratic Party’s stronghold, where criticism of the regime is expected to be strong, the metropolitan area and Chungcheong ranked high. The metropolitan area and Chungcheong are representative swing voter regions, and Gallup Korea’s 4-week opinion poll in March last March (95% confidence level, sampling error ± It is also a place where the approval rating for the ruling party was higher (3.1 percentage points, response rate 15.4%, phone interview method). In particular, there is a possibility that the surge in early voting in Seoul, which accounts for 20% of all constituencies, may be advantageous to the ruling party. While people in their 60s and older tend to have a strong tendency toward the ruling party, in Seoul, the population in their 40s, which has a strong tendency toward the opposition party, decreased by about 10% compared to the previous election, and the population in their 60s or older increased by about 12%. However, the low early voting rate in regions such as Daegu and Busan, which have strong conservative tendencies, does not seem to be favorable to the People Power Party. Political party approval ratings for the 4th week of March. In the metropolitan area and Chungcheong, the People Power Party appears to be higher than the Democratic Party. /Source=Gallup Korea Distribution of subjective political inclinations. From 2022 onwards, the number of people with conservative tendencies was found to be slightly higher than that of liberals. / Source = Gallup Korea Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University, said, “It is too early to judge who has the advantage just because the early voting turnout is currently high. Supporters of both parties may have voted a lot because they have a strong judgment of the other camp. However, the overall voter turnout will increase. “There is a possibility that it will be advantageous for the conservative class. According to Gallup Korea’s subjective political tendency distribution index, there are more conservatives than the progressives,” he analyzed.
In addition, the continuing controversy over Democratic Party candidate Kim Jun-hyuk’s harsh words in Suwon-jeong, Gyeonggi Province, may have stimulated the sentiment of voters in their 20s and 30s that had previously been unclear. In particular, people in their 20s were unable to find a reason to go to the polls, with half of them being independent until recently. In the past, Candidate Kim aroused public outrage among young people by making comments such as ‘Ewha Womans University students offering sexual favors to U.S. military officers’ on YouTube and other broadcasts. In response, the Ewha Womans University alumni association held a protest rally and called for candidate Kim’s resignation. Professor Shin emphasized, “If the voter turnout among women in their 20s and 30s increases due to the controversy over candidate Kim’s harsh words, the Democratic Party will be at a disadvantage.”
Shin Hyun-bo and Kim Se-rin, reporters at Hankyung.com
2024-04-06 12:30:01
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