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The swing states will be the focus of the 2024 US election. According to the latest polls, Kamala Harris is ahead in two of these states.
New York – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump may be heading for a historically close US election. The decision will be made on November 5th. Until then, much or almost everything will revolve around the swing states that tip the scales. Here the majorities between Democrats and Republicans change more frequently, and no party can plan firmly with the electorate there.
These particularly hotly contested states also include Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In both cases, Harris appears to have gained a small lead over the former head of state. This comes from surveys conducted by the US broadcaster Fox which took place between September 20th and 24th. However, the results remain scarce.
Survey before US election: Harris gains a narrow lead over Trump
According to the Survey in Pennsylvania The Democrat leads among registered voters 50 to 48 percent. In contrast, Harris and Trump are tied at 49 percent among likely voters – i.e. those eligible to vote who actually want to vote.
In July, a survey showed that both received 49 percent. The survey took place after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, but Harris had not yet been officially put into the race by the party. In March, Trump, whose campaign is viewed increasingly critically even in his own camp, had a lead of 49 percent to 47 percent compared to the incumbent.
Harris has performed convincingly in three groups in particular since July: She increased her lead by nine points among women, eight points among non-whites and even by 17 points among those under 30. It can also rely primarily on university graduates and urban voters.
These survey results only excite one camp: Kamala Harris is currently apparently ahead of Donald Trump in two swing states. © IMAGO / ABACAPRESS, IMAGO / NurPhoto
Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania: Republicans perform well on issues of migration and economy
92 percent of Harris’ voters are already sure how they will vote, compared to 86 percent for Trump. Perhaps the most combative president in US history can rely primarily on men, whites without college degrees, independents and voters in rural areas. Among men and the small group of independents, the 78-year-old has almost doubled his lead since July.
“Pennsylvania is not falling apart and you shouldn’t expect it to be,” Democratic pollster Chris Anderson is quoted as saying Foxpolls with Republican Daron Shaw: “Both candidates still have a little way to go to consolidate their base, and whoever does better there could determine who wins the state.”
Citizens in Pennsylvania, where the first assassination attempt was made on him in July and where the TV debate between both candidates took place a few weeks ago, trust Trump more than Harris on two out of three top issues. Regarding the issue of migration and border security, he comes to 57 percent, she to 40 percent. When it comes to the economy, the Republican is ahead 52 percent to 46 percent. When it comes to the question of abortion rules, however, he only receives 38 percent approval; here Harris is clearly ahead with 59 percent.
Harris and Trump in North Carolina: Democrat turns deficit into lead, according to survey
The 59-year-old is in North Carolina according to the Fox-Opinion poll even achieved a turnaround. Just a month ago, Trump led there with 50 to 49 percent, now Harris is ahead of him among registered voters with 50 to 48 percent. However, the situation is different among likely voters, as Trump has 50 percent, while the Democrat has 49 percent.
The overall picture changes only slightly when candidates from other parties are also included. In this case, Harris would be ahead by one point among registered voters, and Trump would be ahead by two points among likely voters. The other candidates each received three percent of the vote.
The trend apparently goes against him: According to a survey, Donald Trump is losing ground in two swing states. © ANGELA WEISS / AFP
USA before the presidential election: Significantly greater confidence in Harris when it comes to migration
In North Carolina, Harris can count on blacks, urbanites and women with college degrees, while Trump can count on whites – especially men – without college degrees, rural voters and white evangelicals. Interestingly, Harris performed seven points better among the small group of independents.
92 percent of Harris supporters have already made a firm decision, while on Trump’s side it is 89 percent of supporters. The trend on the three major issues is the same as in Pennsylvania. Trump did better on issues of migration and border security with 56 percent than Harris, who got 41 percent. When it comes to the economy, the Republican is in the lead 52 to 45 percent; when it comes to abortion laws, voters trust Harris significantly more, 56 to 40 percent.
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Harris and Trump before the US election: Lead in survey is within the margin of error
It should give her further tailwind that she is currently in first place in two swing states in surveys conducted by the station, which is said to be close to the Republicans. Harris also recently performed better than Trump in another swing state. However, this trumps in another contested state. Overall, the Democrat currently seems to have better prospects.
However, it is also true that their lead in the two new surveys is within the margin of error Fox with three percentage points. The only thing that is certain is that neither Harris nor Trump can be sure that they will be ahead in one of the two states and thus capture all the voters.
She seems to be making a turnaround: Kamala Harris can look more optimistically to Pennsylvania and North Carolina. © Kevin Lamarque/Pool Reuters/AP/dpa
US election in November: Harris and Trump need at least 270 voters
This time, Pennsylvania only provides 19 voters for the Electoral College instead of 20. The state went to Biden four years ago and in the past four presidential elections it has always gone to the candidate who won overall. So it should be a particularly good omen to be ahead here. North Carolina, which has increased from 15 to 16 electors, has been firmly in the hands of the Republicans since 2012, so Trump has only had his own victories here.
In total, the Electoral College, which ultimately officially elects the president, includes 538 voters. This means that 270 of them are needed to be allowed to take over Biden’s office. The most are in California with 54, followed by Texas with 40, Florida with 30 and the state of New York with 28. Pennsylvania has the fifth most – on a par with Illinois. (mg)
